What does the Post-Election Future hold?
Feeling the Election Day vibes and Assessing the Momentum going into Election Day
It is morning Again in America!
(It is also election morning on the most consequential election of my lifetime where the future of the climate, global order, AI regulation, Ukrainian independence, Global democracy, and the future of the Middle East and the world is on the line. In fact you could say the future of humanity is more at stake on this election than any other election since World War II)
And as the famous Ronald Reagan advert articulated it: ‘It is morning Again in America! Do you want to go back to how things were before four years ago?’ Well, the answer should be a resounding no. The economy has been righted under the Biden/Harris admin. The USA has handled post-Pandemic rebound better than anywhere else in the G7 and inflation has been tamed. Yes, people report not feeling that… but I think/hope they might feel it just enough… and there are indications of late that Trump’s hateful rhetoric is bothering people. And maybe it is bothering enough Latinos and women in PA.
Apparently, everyone believes in predictions… like when I was in Malta last week everyone and their daughter is asking me who is gonna win. I know how to undertake risk and put my money where my mouth is. I happened to win the ‘Highroller Award’ last week and win a five figure bet on predicting the future.
But I have a lot more riding on what happens today then the toss of a few dice and the movement of a few thousand into or out of one account and into another. My whole life and that of our planet is riding on today’s results. So, for the point of intellectual honest and not being a booster I need to stand by my view that Trump is still a slight favourite… but less so than three weeks ago.
And Harris has about a 49% chance of winning in PA and taking the whole thing whereas last week it was only like 46% of winning in PA and becoming Pres… that is what I believe and what my years of study lead me to understand… I also believe that no one can predict anything as it is actually a random outcome… so trying to predict it would be like asking will it rain two weeks from next tuesday in London… you can only have a percentage based on past performance… but given all of that the mood music of the last few days and the vibe has turned in Harris’s direction and that we can see people voting with their pocketbooks gradually in Harris’s direction so she has the momentum coming into election day… (which is not that significant anymore as much voting has already happened…)
So given this, lets first recount these vibes and then hand it over to our Celtic Mega-Ordererette-in-Chief, Jane Kinninmont for a guest post about her DISORDER episode which dropped today on Future prediction… a rather apropos topic…
But first to the Vibes!
Treasuries are trading up and the dollar is down. So the markets are moving in a Harris direction.
For those who don’t know: strengthening of the dollar would be the markets anticipating a Trump win as tariffs will lead to stronger USD… but stronger treasuries would reflect a more stable US economy and stronger more stable future and are a bit on a Harris win… so to wake up this morning ans see treasuries move in a direction anticipating a harris win... that is more meaningful than the betting markets as those can and are skewed by single punters with an agenda... you can't sway the price of a T-Bill as that would take trillions of bucks... so i think it means the market people are perceiving good vibes.
This is also true with BitCoin falling over the last week:
After rising tremendously in early to mid October anticipating a Trump win:
This recent BTC fall means even crypto people (about the most pro-Trump constituency) are less bullish on a Trump victory as we hit election day then they were last week.
Now to an indicator more important then the polls… the Weather! it is how our Lord and creator speaks to us and lets us know his mood.
Sunny to partially cloudy and no rain and super warm like high 60s in philly and suburbs all day... I see that as very positive:
God is smiling down on Philly to show that the world is a happy and warm place... and when people feel good about the future they don’t vote for hate, fear, and division…whereas doom and gloom and stormy vibes are Trump vibes (for Americans who are non-global in their feeling of temp, 23 Centigrade is extremely warm for PA in November it is 73 F which is incredible for this time of year in the north east)
And now to the science of Predicting the future our guest post from Jane:
Hello to our Mega-Orderers as you prepare for a day and night of tension, scant sleep, excess number crunching, puzzling over the finer details of swing state politics, and generally riding the emotional rollercoaster of this election.
It seems to be a critical juncture in history where the possible paths forward for America and the world could go in very different directions, towards very different possible futures. For all our readers and listeners working on international diplomacy, better governance, peace and security or climate, this election throws things up in the air as basic assumptions about the US role in the world are in question. We may be in suspense for days or even weeks to come as the Trump team prepares an array of legal challenges.
(Jane poses with a simulacrum of Trump)
Deep breath. We will have a lot to talk about, whatever happens. But on today’s episode (Listen Here) we thought we would cast our gaze towards the much longer term and engage in a hopeful and positive discussion about how people think about the future, and how we can use structured methodologies from futures and foresight practices to prepare ourselves for change, build resilience, and claim agency over what a better future can look like.
Another deep breath. Can you wake me up in 2028?
The future often seems to look scary – especially to young people – and we can see that the Trump campaign has capitalized on that fear with its talk of World War Three about to happen – while Harris voters fear the end of democracy is nigh, possibly later tonight. On this future-focused episode of the podcast I talk to Cat Tully, a former UK government strategist who now runs something called the School of International Futures, about her work with governments and civil society around the world to think longer term, focus on the needs of future generations, and why she is optimistic about the future.
Governments all need to look into the future, both to plan for the future and to assess where changes, shocks or risks could come up and disrupt these plans. But governments often can’t look very far ahead into the future because of the electoral cycle. Or they might see some issues that come up in the future but aren’t motivated to act because its’s so far off and doesn’t seem like their problem. So one of the things I talked to Cat about is how they can be made to think long term and build the interests of young people and future generations into their thinking. One of the cool things about this is that the nation of Wales has been a “first mover” on this. We already know any country with a dragon on its flag is going to be awesome.
(This is Jason cutting in here… I love Celtic Mega-Ordering)
But they’re set a trend for representing future generations in government which has been picked up by other governments, by the EU and most recently by the UN.
Cat tells us about the recent UN Summit of the Future to focus world leaders on the challenges that we all face: conflict, climate change, ungoverned AI. World leaders agreed on a Pact for the Future and made commitments to future generations. But this is all happening at the same time as multilateralism seems to be struggling – and could very soon face much bigger challenges. We talk about how passing a UN resolution is only the beginning of making change. We also talk about Cat’s view that much of the work to re-order the world and shape more effective governance will be done in a highly decentralized way at local community levels – reminding me of how US city mayors made commitments to respect the Paris Accord climate targets even after Trump pulled out of the treaty.
Cat tells me young people are still somehow optimistic about the future in most countries where we work even if what we hear is mainly about climate anxiety and world war three. And we discuss whether and how to accept or even embrace disorder. Let’s face it we all need to build our resilience for the long term… and have something positive to think about for the next few hours…
And for more on Future prediction:
The School of International Futures’ Implementation Handbook for the wellbeing of future generations: https://soif.org.uk/implementation-handbook/
UK Government’s brief guide to futures thinking and foresight: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/635931b18fa8f557d066c1b1/A_Brief_Guide_to_Futures_Thinking_and_Foresight_-_2022.pdf
A great book by Jane McGonagal on training your imagination to think about the future: https://janemcgonigal.com/2021/12/17/imaginable-how-to-see-the-future-coming-and-feel-ready-for-anything-even-things-that-seem-impossible-today/
Now this is Jason Pack from Disorder signing off… Pls pray for Order and Vote for it.
(And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t win)
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