Were the Iranians forewarned? why are the markets so placid? What happens if Hormuz is closed?

And for Paid For subscribers why is the Israeli stock market rising?

Some global events are so big, everyone knows about them and there is no need to provide any update on what happened. However, maybe people may not realize exactly the details on how it happened. So here are some thoughts on that:

1. Britain was informed of the U.S. military strikes on Iran ahead of time, but did not receive any U.S. request for their shared Diego Garcia air base in the Indian Ocean to be used, senior minister Jonathan Reynolds said on Sunday.” https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-was-informed-ahead-us-iran-strike-no-request-help-minister-2025-06-22/

2. They bombers flew all the way from Missouri without stopping. READ MY COLLEAGUE’S Wolfgang Pusztai’s amazing substack on the technical details

https://substack.com/inbox/post/166526472?r=3zngg5&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true&triedRedirect=true

3). There was a feint flight with B2 from California that docked in Guam and kept the Iranians off guard but it makes sense to go they way they did as that meant that the attack flight was taking the Israeli route where the airdefences were known to be eviscerated whereas maybe in the south east there were still more airdefenses

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cew0x7159edo

It is/was the decoy flight thing that confused many media outlets reporting that the strike came from Guam.

Now we must ask: Were the Iranians forewarned?

Appears to be at least partially.

Why are the markets so placid?

Although oil is going up there is a real view that Iran may not retaliate and that we are in for a short war and that the US economy will weather any retaliation and it is Europe and China who will suffer.

What happens if Hormuz is closed?

I was interviewed about this subject for Metro.

Jason Pack, fellow at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and host of the Disorder Podcast, told Metro that it would be ‘such a committal step’ for Iran that it would indicate which way the war is going.

He said: ‘There are many reasons why the Iranians would not want to close it. For one, they would not be able to make any money from their oil.

‘Their allies, particularly China, would not want that. China is dependent on Iranian oil and their economy is already suffering.’

Closing the Strait of Hormuz also does not happen automatically – there is no barrier or another contraption to physically stop the passing of ships.

Instead, Pack explained that Iran would plant underwater mines or attack a tanker, for example, to signal it.

This would also force insurance premiums for vessels to ‘go through the roof.’

He added: ‘This would then cause oil to have to be taken on pipelines and trucks to the Mediterranean, and that would cause tremendous delays, and a lot of oil will not be produced as there are not enough storage facilities.

‘So there would be a huge price hit and the markets would go crazy.’

YOU CAN READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE.

And for Paid For subscribers why is the Israeli stock market rising? And what does it tell us about the trajectory of the conflict. PLEASE JOIN THE PAID SUBSTACK COMMUNITY TO CONTRIBUTE TO ORDERING THE DISORDER