The Rematch of the Disorderer-in-Chief vs Joseph Robinette Status-Quo Jr.
Rick Davis on the state of the Presidential race and the epochal shifts in American party politics
Before jumping into this post about the fall out from Super Tuesday (and our podcast with Rick Davis about this topic, which you can listen to here) I wanted to share an update about the US government’s procedures follow on from the Senate’s 2023 UAP Disclosure Act that I discussed in last week’s post and podcast.
The conclusion so far is that: The Pentagon's UFO office has once again stressed that it has found no evidence of alien technology in the skies, in space or crashed in the American desert.
David Grusch, former National Reconnaissance Office representative on the Defense Department's Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force, testifies during the House Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs hearing titled "Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena: Implications on National Security, Public Safety, and Government Transparency," in Rayburn Building on Wednesday, July 26, 2023. (Image credit: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
On Friday (March 8), the office released its long-awaited "Report on the Historical Record of U.S. Government Involvement with Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Volume I." The report is sure to cause controversy among the UAP disclosure movement that argues the U.S. government does, in fact, know a lot more about alleged alien presence than it publicly admits. Of course given that the problem with the legislation is that it lacks full subpoena power to compel disclosure rather than to accept voluntary disclosures we don’t know for sure that this is the full story.
Read more about this development here:
https://www.space.com/pentagon-ufo-office-aaro-historical-report-no-emprical-evidence-alien-technology
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-defense-department-ufo-uap-aliens-report-99d2ca20
Now to the main topic: How will the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US Presidential elections disorder the globe in 2024?
In this year of monumental elections, there is none which looms larger than the granddaddy of them all: the 2024 US Presidential Elections. With the US Primary season all but over, the match up appears set between the “disorderer-in-chief” Donald Trump and Joe Biden. But in the wake of Super Tuesday is that match up really set? Or might an open convention ‘aka Ezra Klein’ scenario emerge leading to last minute switch up? And what are the global implications for a long and protracted race between two candidates with vastly different approaches to America’s place in the world and fostering global order? And what are the implications of two wildly unpopular candidates running for President with each seeking to present themselves as the least bad option?
To answer these questions and more, Alex Hall Hall was joined on this week’s Disorder pod (listen here) by Rick Davis.
Rick was a senior political consultant on multiple presidential campaigns, including for George H W Bush and for Bob Dole. He also served as Senator John McCain’s national campaign manager in 2000 and 2008. He is currently a partner at Stone Court Capital, a private equity investor located in New York City. Alex and he discuss his time managing John McCain’s campaign, how Trump has conducted a hostile takeover of the Republican Party, and how we can understand the demographic shifts that have remade the face of the Republican party over the last two decades.
As they Order the Disorder (listen here), Alex and Jason discuss the prevalent double standards which are used when analyzing Biden’s record on the economy, Gaza, and Ukraine, how Congress could proactively prevent some of the potentially disordering impacts of a future potential Trump presidency, and looking forward to 2028, how a whole new class of political leaders appears bound to emerge.
But who is the least bad?
This election had many unique dynamics yet arguably the most sui generis is that polls also suggest that the vast majority of American voters are unhappy with their likely choices: Trump is seen as too flawed and controversial; Biden as too old, and ineffective, with his likely choice as Vice President for the second time, Kamala Harris, also unpopular.
So, what are the chances of a third candidate coming forward and managing to break through – either running as an independent; or being placed on the ballot at the last minute, at either party’s convention? Might either one of the front runners decide to drop out at the last minute, to make way for an alternate nominee. For some interesting analysis of RFK Jr. and how he might engage in a hostile takeover of the Libertarian party check out this other substack called the unpopulist which I think is brilliant: https://substack.com/home/post/p-142547232?r=2c47if&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Background Reading on Rick Davis and Super Tuesday’s drop outs:
Rick’s bio: https://www.mccaininstitute.org/about/leadership/rick-davis/
For more on Rick Davis’s career: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Davis_(political_consultant)
On Davis and Lobbying: https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/25/us/politics/25davis.html
On Super Tuesday and Nikki Haley’s Departure from the Republican Primary:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/03/06/us/haley-out-trump-election-updates
On Super Tuesday and Dean Phillips Departure from the Democratic Primary:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/us/politics/dean-phillips-drops-out.html