Syria, Georgia, South Korea, France, Ireland, Hunter Biden, oh my

Extra bonus content on Ireland for paid subscribers

This week was par for the course… We are living through Peak Disorder.

Two democratic capital cities were convulsed by demonstrations trying to oust their governments. One Middle Eastern regime collapsed, just after a neighboring war was paused.

We at the Disorder pod believe that events like the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire, the fall of Syria to the rebels, the street protests in Georgia in response to claims the election was rigged, the protests in South Korea opposing attempts to impose martial law, the battleground issues of the Irish elections, the spontaneous collapse of the French government, and the pardoning of Hunter Biden are all interrelated.

We are most certainly living through the Global Enduring Disorder. In this historic era, events in one part of the world ping pong around and interact in unforeseen ways with events elsewhere, without sufficiently coordinated responses from potential Ordering powers.

On today’s episode, we’re joined today by friend of the pod, fellow Georgia and Syria enthusiast, and former British Diplomat Arthur Snell. Arthur has recently hosted excellent pods on events in Syria and Georgia on his Behind the Lines podcast. (Links to his content below)

We recorded most of the episode after the Fall of Aleppo (last Wednesday the 3rd) but before the fall of the Assad regime in total. Therefore, we will be having a bonus episode with Jane Kinninmont on Thursday delving into that in specific.

However, I’ve prefaced the ep with a special monologue about the Alawite dimension of the Assad regime and what the civil war meant for that community and the collapse of the regime might now mean.

You can listen to the episode on Apple podcasts here.

Or on Spotify here

Or you can just listen to my uncut monologue about the Alawites and how Syria has been under their domination since 1966 and how they are a persecuted and maligned community which came to use French patronage to dominate Syria… and my shock that their community has lost its ‘assabiyya and surrendered without a fight:

In this ep, Arthur and Jason survey all of these topics, explaining that because of the fundamental principles of our era of Global Enduring Disorder, previously stable looking places like South Korea, are becoming Disorderly. They discuss how memes and themes that are playing out in the UK and US are also rehashed in Ireland. They finish the show by trying to Order the Disorder – contrasting developments in South Korea with those in Georgia, concluding that state capacity and cultural solidarity is more vital now than ever.

Subscribe to our Substack:

DEEP BACKGROUND

Listen to Arthur’s podcast episode about Georgia: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/a654b790f75542d26710235d05c378d7

And his episode on The Fall of Aleppo: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/08772c26e60e40496a2a235b491f561b

For deeper background to the Syrian Rebel’s offensive: https://www.syriaintransition.com/aleppoherewecome

And how events in South Korea are connected to developments in Trump world: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/12/south-korea-martial-law/680864/

And some peripheral content on the Irish elections:

https://www.breakingnews.ie/general-election-2024/hutchs-dail-bid-ends-with-him-running-away-from-pandemonium-at-count-centre-1702711.html

---

Key Quote from Jason and ‘his discipline’ Tom Friedman:

What I see is that what's going on now is proof of my thesis. And I articulated it on the pod in the second week of October, 2023, which is that Israel had lost the war in Gaza as soon as Hamas made that incursion. Yeah. And that no amount of settler violence on the one hand or killing of Hamas or Hezbollah leaders, or even the destruction of the Houthi movement in Yemen would change that fact… And to me, this is proof because Terror does is that it creates a backlash and that backlash radicalizes a subject population. And I see that we're now seeing those dynamics. And I think that men Yahoo is a tactician and not a strategist. He does everything to stay in power and that's tactics. I want to use this to have an unconventional analysis, which is that the winner are the disordering powers.

How the disorder plays out and how it's ordered may have a lot to do with the. Institutional and cultural strengths and solidarities. And I wouldn't count the Georgians out to actually get rid of Ivanishvili because dictators and autocrats make mistakes of overreach. And I don't know if what's going on in Georgia may be calling the bluff of the West or if we're going to be able to help out or just the resiliency of the Georgian people will turn out to be like that of the South Korean people, which is that if you try to impose habeas corpus and to crack down on protesters, you get turfed out. Absolutely. And, um, and that's what we saw in South Korea, where an attempted coup lasted just a matter of hours. It's a reminder that in, I won't say established, but democracies that have a measure of establishment, it can go both ways. And if, if you overstepped, the response of a motivated populace may push you back, and the military may not be willing to back you up.

In the words of that venerable sage of the establishment and apparently my disciple, Thomas Friedman:

This is why, having just spent the past week in Beijing and Shanghai, I repeatedly told my Chinese interlocutors: “You think we are enemies. You are wrong. We have a common enemy: Disorder. How we collaborate to shrink the World of Disorder and grow The World of Order is what history will judge us both for.” (Not sure they got it, but they will.)

You can read his whole article on Syria here.

Or you can examine my hotel bill for Thanksgiving 2004 in Aleppo which I celebrated in Beit Wakil… one of the most glorious classic Ottoman houses:

And now to the really important aspect of last two week’s events: The Irish Election…

So for pay for subscribers we have special bonus content from Dublin from a genuine Irish lassie who is simultaneously a banker, middle east expert, and woman on the street.. For her remarks/observations interspersed with my commentary pls join the pay for substack: