Peak Disorder: Nasrallah's death, the transition in Bangladesh and its Arab Spring Parallels
A Levant on fire; a South Asian democratic transition on track or wildly a drift? Bangladesh's elections Delayed and the Army moves to tighten its grip on power
(This is a special substack mostly about the recent regime change and delayed elections in Bangladesh, but using recent developments in the Levant to put those events in a broader context. If you enjoy it please forward to friends and upgrade to our paid subscriber tier)
Peak Disorder— Lebanon, Israel, Iran
The core Middle Eastern region has not seen a genuine interstate war since the Cold War. Yet, as of late 2024 the region either sits on the brink or has already descended into the abyss. Seeking to stay in power at home, delay his court cases or elections, and most critically seeking to compensate for failures of intelligence and strategy in Gaza, Bibi has escalated his post-Oct 7 vengeance campaign into Lebanon. It is he alone who has chosen this path.
We must however call a spade a spade and admit that he has scored unexpected tactical successes there: from the pager attacks to yesterday’s targeted assassination of Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Neutral observers who are appalled by the humanitarian cost cannot but marvel at the Israeli military and intelligence services performance. I do not think America or Britain could have pulled off these feats. And I do not think any other nation could have fought harder to regain sovereignty over its Northern region which has been uninhabitable for months due to Hizbollah rockets.
Israel’s intelligence service have needed to restore deterrence and compensate for their horrific oversight to not be prepare for the Oct 7 incursion and massacre where they could not protect their own citizens from ravaging berzerk marauders. But restoring deterrence does not a war win. All this tactical genius in Lebanon is being utilized to what end? It does not compensate for the failure to defend the Southern kibutzzim a year ago.
Just like in any game of strategy, tactical genius with no strategic vision can lead to some gains but eventual defeat. Usually, it merely delays the inevitable. But this analysis assumes that Bibi or Hamas or Iran want to ‘win’ a war and end up with a specific ‘ordered’ end state? What if both Iran and its proxies on the one hand, and the Israeli right on the other desire a more disordered world and a Levant region ablaze which fuels that disorder by emitting conflict, and through the ensuing power vacuum, radicalizes outside actors and invites in external interventions. Just as Hamas and the Likud have had a delicate dance of disorder where they keep each other in power for the last 20 years, we might be seeing this across the region, where even the nations whose people have the most to lose economically and humanitarianly (Lebanon, Israel, the Palestinians, Iran) are governed by leaderships who actively escalate the ongoing conflicts to the detriment of their people, merely to fuel Peak Disorder and retain power. Clearly Hizbollah has fuelled the conflict over the last year to justify its place in Lebanese society. It has disorder the region only because Iran prefers a disordered Levant so the Ayatollahs can stay in power back in Iran. There is no strategic calculus for random rocket fire from Southern Lebanon into Northern Israel. It will not stop the fighting in Gaza nor will it bring about a Palestinian State. It strews disorder for disorder’s sake alone.
A New Theory
Just when you thought, you had heard all of my theories about how the Global Enduring Disorder works, it turns out I have a new theory, ‘Peak Disorder’: the democratic world’s inability to exert ordering capacity to respond to new challenges except if they are existentially pressing because we are simply too divided, distracted, and overtaxed by existing crises. Hence, new outbursts of non-existential and not hyper-pressing disorder can fly under the radar no matter how much they necessitate ordering attention or how much benefit their would be from ordering them.
Consider, with so much disorder around us capturing top-table attention (e.g., the U.S. election, Ukraine/Russia, Gaza/Israel, Lebanon, climate, with AI needing to be regulated) that new disordering world events that spontaneously take place ‘elsewhere’ — which under other more normal conditions (say those that prevailed in say 2021), would make front page news and would elicit major international diplomatic conferences — now have been flying underneath the radar and not getting the policy attention they deserve. I would argue that the disorders disorder on purpose and are quite happy that it means that the international community then lacks the attention span to sort out conflicts in areas like Sudan or regime changes in places like Bangladesh.
To my mind the phenomenon of ‘peak disorder’ is well illustrated by how events in the Middle East effect the last two months by events in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh is a country with strong economic potential and many opportunities for progress, but its potential transition from corrupt populism and creeping authoritarianism (under Sheikh Hasina) back potentially to democracy (with root and branch reform and elections) would be profoundly aided by outside support for reforms and from being insulated from disordering geopolitical rivals. That its transition is trying to be conducted amidst Peak Disorder makes this difficult.
The Chronology of an ostensibly pro-democratic Regime Change in Bangladesh
So in an attempt to Order the Disorder where our newspapers and diplomats have largely dropped the ball, today I’d like to shine a light on the early August protests in Bangladesh, the ouster of the long established pseudo-democratic populist regime there and how the ensuing crisis has sucked in disordering foreign actors and has opened up a new chapter in great power competition among India, the US, and China over Bangladesh that truly epitomizes many of the core dynamics of the Enduring Disorder.
I am not going to pretend to be a South Asia expert but I’ve tried to do a lot of reading so I can recap this story as best I can (If you want to hear a pod that provides both great historical and contemporary background check out Arthur Snell’s here):
Bangladesh’s embattled prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, fled the country on Aug. 5, 2024, after weeks of protests that had resulted in hundreds of deaths.
The country’s president, Mohammed Shahabuddin, the armed forces and political parties selected a temporary “caretaker” government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.
Bangladesh used to have a custom of caretaker governments overseeing elections written into its constitution, but that that been abolished by Sheikh Hasina, yet that precedent is widely respected by the populace and the country’s legal traditions. The key opposition party the BNP has accepted the transition but initially demanded an election in three months, but later said it accepts Yunus approach and wants to allow the interim government time for reforms. Now Yunis has further delayed elections to 18 months time. Unsurprisingly, some factions in the country are upset with the nature of the caretaker government’s reforms and the slow progress towards elections.
(Seeking to unpack the very complex developments there, I recorded this pod, entitled Peak Disorder in Bangladesh which you can listen to here.)
Here is a bit of what I’ve learned. Events there are being underreported by the media and under-focused on by our diplomats: It is not just a straightforward democratic transition where after peaceful students were murdered by an aspiring autocrat, a democratic transition is being shepherded by an internationally respected technocrat.
The Army is stepping up: Are they protecting democracy or merely their own interests? For sure they are responding to a condition of Peak Disorder
As unrest has grown, the army has rallied around Yunus with the Army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman vowing to back the country's interim government led by Professor Muhammad Yunus "come what may" to help it complete key reforms so that elections could be held within the next 18 months.
Bangladesh's Chief of Army Staff General Waker-uz-Zaman gestures during an interview with Reuters at his office in the Bangladesh Army Headquarters, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, September 23, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir Hossain
In a rare media interview, Waker told Reuters at his office in the capital on Monday that the interim administration led by Nobel laureate Yunus had his full support and outlined a pathway to rid the military of political influence. "I will stand beside him, come what may. So that he can accomplish his mission," Waker, bespectacled and dressed in military fatigues, said of Yunus.
Read the Reuters exclusive here.
In response to these developments, the Army has been given magistry power.
An officer with magistracy power can arrest people and put them in custody. In self defence and extreme need, the officer can open fire, said an adviser to the interim government.
Explaining the rationale behind the move, Law Adviser Asif Nazrul said, "We are witnessing subversive acts and disrupted stability in several places, especially in the industrial areas across the country. Given the situation, army personnel have been given magistracy power.
This could of course calm civil disturbances or it could be the opening salvo in a return to martial law in the short term and military rule in the long term.
Rule of Law Vacuum
The interim government, driven by the students, is not acting according to the rule of law. Thousands have lost their jobs. The army will be forced to act if the government makes too many mistakes. But the removal of all the supreme court judges, the releasing of prisoners, the new transitional government’s vendetta against so many people (including captain of the cricket team ) is not the work of an enlightened professor. Yunus may have been great at microfinance but it is not clear that he is cut out to oversee this transition.
To delve deeper into this, our special episode of Disorder connects the dots btw theories of how Tyrannies collapse and real world current events unfolding before our eyes in Bangladesh
To delve deeper into events in Bangladesh and what they say about Peak Disorder I was joined by Michael Kugelman the Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center and a weekly columnist for Foreign Policy magazine.
You can listen to that episode here.
Michael has written that the fall of the Awami league Hasina’s political party is:
… quite simple. Hasina's security forces resorted to egregious levels of violence against peaceful protestors, robbing Hasina of her legitimacy—which was already fragile due to growing economic stress and yet another questionable election—and prompting the nation to rally around the protestors. Those repressive actions from the security forces also unleashed pent up public grievances against the state. The genie was let out of the bottle, and eventually there was nothing else that Hasina or the Awami League could do, other than step down. [Read Michael’s full Daily Star article here]
This quote explains that the situation has many parallels with the Arab Spring events especially in Tunisia and Egypt and follows a specific trajectory of popular overthrow of an entrenched authoritarian regime where the army can be made to flip on the incumbent autocrat. The regime collapse trajectory perfectly mirrored Arab Spring models and although the origins of the crisis shared the Arab Spring elements of corruption high youth unemployment, etc… the proximal nuances are quite different given that Bangladesh had previously had the trappings of democracy, rule of law, and very impressive economic growth over the last decade. However, we now see the spectre of military support/intervention in the transition which could lead to a situation of military dominance over any civilian politicians that appear to be in charge like in Pakistan or overt re-assertion of military control like in Egypt. (As mentioned above Arthur Snell does a great job drawing on these historical parallels to unpack what he calls the Bangladesh Spring in his pod.)
The historical background and the paramount role of the Army, street protests, and regional powers like India and China
Since Bangladesh’s independence, the army has played a huge role in shaping the political trajectory of the country. From 1975 to 2011, Bangladesh experienced at least 29 military coups and counter-coups. It also experienced direct military rule from 1977 to 1981 and between 1981 and 1990.
The protests stemmed from long-running resentment over a quota system that saw 56% of government positions in Bangladesh reserved for various groups, including 30% for the descendants of freedom fighters who fought in the 1971 War of Independence. Ultimately it came down to a series of miscalculations, including the belief that it was possible to once again end the crisis by using an iron fist—the tactic used so many times in the past, and with success.
The protestors were accused of siding with Pakistan and being Rajakaar. The Bangladesh Chhatra League – the armed wing of the Awami League – began attacking students with tear gas and live bullets, with support from the police.
Abroad, the US is dealing with a world on fire. At home, it's dealing with an intense presidential election campaign. Bangladesh is not exactly foremost on its mind. It's true the Chief Adviser Dr Yunus has many supporters and admirers in the US, and those that believe the baseless allegation of a US hand in Hasina's ouster’
With India hosting Hasina in exile we face the exact issue that Marcel Dirsus discussed on Disorder ep 67 ‘Dictators Disordering Quest for Internal Security’ when a dictator abruptly falls from power and is hosted by an ally… that ally will be pressured by the new gov to give up the dictator as the price for having good relations with the new regime… this is one of the reasons why dictators who fall from power have almost no where they can go… they are forced to fight to cling to power…
But I digress that is just the reason that India is in a bind with the new region, now to the question of all the great powers. Bangladesh has become a battleground for geopolitical competition, with the US, India, China, and Russia all making plays for influence. Many feel with Modi’s consolidation of power that the US and UK have ceded to India a sphere of influence over other South Asian states like Bangladesh and Sri Landa… back to Michael Kugelman’s take:
The US tends to look at Bangladesh through the lens of great power competition, and that means that while it will welcome Yunus as the head of the interim government, it will worry about the implications of a new government that may be poised to take the country even closer to China. [Read Michael’s full Daily Star article here]
The consensus of the experts is that Hasina’s ouster causes India to lose out the most, Pakistan to benefit the most, but the rest of the region and world may well be relatively unaffected. Here are some more quotes from Michael to help make it all clear
· Although Hasina balanced ties with China and India and boosted ties with Beijing, her special relationship with Modi's India meant that she could only go so far in relations with Beijing, so as not to alienate New Delhi. That need to avoid foreign policy steps that upset India will not be as strong. This could have implications for Dhaka's relations with Beijing.
Bangladesh is a significant player in the world, especially because of its economy, and many global capitals have substantive partnerships with Dhaka, especially commercial ones… The US, China, Russia and also India will all have strong incentives to engage and to maintain influence. Dhaka will welcome this engagement—even though it will face the same conundrum that the Hasina government did of being a nonaligned state amid intensifying great power rivalry.
The Economic Angle and potential for debt to lead to disorder
There is also the economic angle where Bangladesh requires IMF loans but the conditions of the loans might make any government who accepts them unpopular and could lead to a neo-populist politician threatening to ignore the international community and to chart a new course away from the West/IMF and towards China/Russia and other economic models. This is what has happened with Qais Said in Tunisia and is everything that must be avoided in Bangladesh if the country is to produce prosperity, accountability, and freedom for its people. A stitch in time saves nine and the mistakes in Tunisia’s seemingly hopeful regime change actually happened early in the transition but didn’t play out fully for years. The fly in the ointment took many years to contaminate everything and culminate in Said’s election and cancellation of Tunisian democracy. The same might happen in Bangladesh and now is the time to lay down a good trajectory towards democracy, accountability, and sustainable economics.
The situation with IMF needed to bail Bangladesh out is not just about subsidies, but rule of law as well.
The government is going after a dozen high profile businesses under the banner of asset recovery but there are fears there’s no due process and that the economic witch hunt is being led by a media frenzy. If the government takes these assets illegally in order to satisfy political objectives and are challenged, it could make the IMF’s granting of a loan very difficult or impossible. Due to a lack of rule of law with factories burnt, job lost, international investor departing particularly in the garment/textile section. Again, if the government gets too political with the business sector in a country that is corrupt from top to bottom and it impacts the ability of the man on the street to feed his family. So there is likely a backlash coming and with the world distracted by Peak Disorder and events in Israel/Lebanon/Gaza, the US election, Ukraine/Russia, I simply can’t see the coherent international coordination on issues like the Bangladeshi transition even though the country is the world’s 8th largest and is a critical place of geostrategic competition among India, China, the US and Russia.
FOR MORE BACKGROUND ON THE BANGLADESHI CONTEXT AND CURRENT POLITICAL TRANSITION
PODS:
Arthur Snell’s Behind the Lines on the Bangladesh Spring
DISORDER pod on Peak Disorder in Bangladesh
A good overview podcast by ABC (Australia) about how we got to where we are now which also interviews Michael Kugelman:
BACKGROUND ARTICLES:
Michael’s sterling interview with The Daily Star that gets into the geopolitics of the situation:
For some real concise takes on the facts of what has happened in Bangladesh:
AND THE MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:
Army agreeing to stand behind Yunus come what may:
https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/ill-stand-beside-him-come-what-may-3710766
Exclusive: Bangladesh army chief strongly backs interim government, eyes elections within 18 months