Ordering the Disorder Substack launched - supplants NATO and Global Enduring Disorder Newsletter
January 2024
The Disorder Podcast is a co-production between Goalhanger Podcasts and the Global Enduring Disorder Ltd, the producers of this newsletter
ANNOUNCEMENT - We've moved to Substack!
From February 2024 onwards, you will find Ordering the Disorder content on Substack - it will be replacing the previously monthly NATO and Global Enduring Disorder newsletter. The point in this shift is to focus more on podcast related content and share the types of background research and interesting discoveries that goes into creating our shows. In fact, some of the best material hits the chopping room floor and never gets into the podcast, but Substack offers a platform to share these ideas. Helping us flesh out key developments and concepts relating to the Enduring Disorder.
If you are receiving this now, you will continue receiving our monthly round up of Global Enduring Disorder content - no extra actions required. On top of that, we will start posting weekly context, extra questions, and deeper dives into the topics we are discussing that week with our experts on the Disorder Podcast. You can opt out by unsubscribing. You can also share it with your friends by clicking on the share button.
Here's a glimpse into what the Ordering the Disorder Substack will focus on - We live in an era of Global Enduring Disorder. Neo-populism, climate change and unregulated cyberspace are but a few of the key issues which confront our wrong-footed institutions. Join us, as we monitor the myriad interconnections of our global predicament and explore solutions to the Enduring Disorder.
What hope does the Middle East have to achieve a semblance of Order?
Dear Friends and Colleagues,
At the end of January 2024, in the wake of the Iranian proxy attack on American military assets in northeastern Jordan, the question on everyone's lips is: Might the Middle East be headed for a slight regional escalation, or might a full ceasefire and hostage exchange cool down the simmering tensions? What is clear to me is that an ideal or optimal compromise is unlikely to be reached between the various actors, each will be acting to show strength and posture. Biden will feel he needs to show that he is not weak heading into the election cycle and the Houthis and Hamas want to show that they won't back down despite the horrific humanitarian consequences for their people. Plus, Netanayhu feels that he needs to show that he doesn't care about international opprobrium but is committed to his policies, and the Iranians think that they can be major disrupters if they want to and that their interests need to be taken seriously. It is these ideological and domestic pressures that are almost certain to lead to an overall suboptimal outcome. And electoral democracy doesn't seem to be promoting elected leaders firmly committed to Ordering. Rather from The Netherlands to Sweden to Israel it seems to be promoting the further rise of Neopopulists. Consider that as I write this text, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz is running the following headline on the top of its homepage, "Israel Is Heading Towards Street Battles Between the Far Right and Families of Hostages". Where has the connection between electoral politics and compromise for mutual interests gone?
Speaking of which, we have entered into the biggest electoral year in world history, 2024. And it is full of Disorder - over 25,000 Palestinian deaths reported in Gaza, Israeli officials cutting off their noses to spite their face by denying the legitimacy of a Palestinian state, attending resettle Gaza meetings, and not proposing any political horizon. And then there is the complex and bizarre precedent of the ICJ ruling. Personally, I don't really understand its implications or if it is to be taken seriously or was simply a media coup orchestrated by South Africa. As I am by no means an expert on international law, for those who are interested in the legal merits of the case, the meaning of the ruling, and what happens next you, can listen to Vox's Today Explained. Add to this news of renewed US and UK shelling on Yemen amidst undeterred Houthis attacks on Red Sea shipping and the spectre of American retaliation for the Iranian drone attack. All this... and still no solutions. All heat and no light. No one talking about real solutions for post-War Gaza. Even the potential hostage exchange deal proposed in Paris seems to focus on the hyper short term rather than the more meaningful medium term.
When it comes to Gaza, we need to discuss what could, should, and must happen the day after the war ends and we need to provide an off ramp to push for the war to end. Calling for a ceasefire with no plans to de-Hamasify Gaza won't work. I believe that a condominium of Arab states, with Qatar playing a central role, could bring interim governance to Gaza and the Middle East. I think this approach would weaken Iran and Russia’s influence in the region, something crucial at a time of a concrete risk of escalation.
Also extremely worrying is the rise of every sort of conspiracy theory of which many bizarre anti-semitic ones are certainly trending. Even Bill Maher has been talking about 'October 7th truthers' who are denying the massacre claiming the Israelis staged it. My hot take from a recent New European piece is that we are gonna see a lot more conspiratorial anti-semitism trying to link events in Gaza to a larger Jewish conspiracy and that as bat shit as these conspiracies are they will have major ramifications on voting patterns. In short, you are gonna be hearing a lot more about George Soros over the next year.
This problem seems to stem from a large aucience willing to ascribing collective Jewish responsibility to the errors of Netanyahu or other political actors that they never would do in a non-Jewish context (i.e. who blames Americans in general for Trump's putting migrants in cages). I mean given his obvious failings and venality, why don't people grasp Netanyahu for what he is? Or as I wrote on The New European, 'Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, is just a run-of-the-mill immoral, self-serving, law-evading, constitution-altering, neopopulist politician'. So much of today's anti-Israel and anti-Zionist rhetoric is missing the point: Netanyahu is doing what he is doing as a Neo-Populist and not as a Zionist, not as a Jew, or not even as an Israeli leader, his actions and choices stem from his neopopulism. This context is essential to understanding why Israeli strategy in Gaza is fundamentally flawed and why the media's discourse around the war in Gaza is also so wrong-headed. There is nothing particularly Libyan about the forced slavery of migrants and nothing Syrian about Asad's decisions to drop barrel bombs on his own people. And there is nothing Jewish or Israeli about the horrific choices Netanayhu and his neopopulist allies are making in Gaza. Sadly, neopopulists and other thugs will do what they can get away with if it serves their ideology or interests.
For more on our era of Disorder you can listen to the Disorder Podcast. Find our linktree here and don't forget to follow the Disorder Show on social media.
Now, let's take a look back at the last month of Global Enduring Disorder.
New Perspectives on Disorder
READ: Blame Netanyahu for Gaza, not ‘the Jews’
The rise of antisemitic discourse since October 7th is preventing the West from diagnosing what is actually going on with Netanyahu's decision making. Jason Pack writes about it in The New European. Read here.
READ: The Palestinians and Israel: A Modern Day ‘Trail of Tears’
In Byline Times, Alexandra Hall Hall draws some striking comparisons between the treatment of Native Americans more than 100 years ago and the situation of Palestinians today. She also discusses what lessons can be learnt. Read here.
READ: Everything You Know About Global Order Is Wrong
"If Western elites understood how the postwar liberal system was created, they’d think twice about asking for its renewal". This is a 2019 article that we still consider timely and relevant. Read Adam Tooze in Foreign Policy. Read here.
LISTEN: Battleground: How the 2006 War relates to Gaza today
We found this interview with former Middle East correspondent Tim Butcher, who covered the 2006 Lebanon War, fascinating. In the interview, Tim speaks to Patrick Bishop about how the dynamics between the Israeli militaries and their enemies have changed over time. Plus, how the low-intensity nature of the conflict has given the guerillas an advantage, as they learn how to anticipate Israeli tactics. Listen here.
READ: The Road to Middle East Peace Runs Through Doha
What could post-war governance in Gaza look like? In Foreign Policy, Jason Pack writes about his idea, of convening a condominium of Arab states that can bring interim governance to Gaza and the Middle East generally, where Qatar would play a prominent role. He also shares how the UK and US could facilitate this. Read here.
Ordering the Disorder
We are living through an unprecedented era. International institutions like the UN are incapable of tackling global challenges, disrupting powers are deliberating whether to promote chaos rather than order, while like-minded countries fail to coordinate on transnational threats. How can we work together to get through this chaos?
Ep22. What are Iran’s and Egypt’s roles in the evolving Middle East crisis?
What is the regional role played by Egypt and Iran? With Alex’s former boss, Sir Geoffrey Adams, who served as British Ambassador both to Iran (2006-9) and to Egypt (2018-21), we discuss British diplomacy towards those countries over the last decade or so. Listen here.
BONUS EPISODE: Oh Yeah, Man, why are the Houthis disordering global shipping in the Red Sea?
As the Houthis attack ships in the Red Sea, Arthur Snell and Jason explore how this horrible crisis is actually an opportunity to create a coalition of orderers, how much control Iran actually has and how Houthis actions can be interpreted as ‘global disordering’ rather than specifically supporting the Palestinians or a given outcome in Gaza. Listen here.
Ep20. Corruption in Plain Sight
With journalist and author Sam Bright and Husni Bey Husni, Libya’s most famous and successful entrepreneur and businessman, Alex and Jason talk about corruption in Britain and Libya. In the British context they discuss how wealthy donors can buy meetings with senior officials within the Conservative Party. In Libya, they unpack how subsidies encourage corruption and pervert incentive structures and international markets. Listen here.
Introducing AfterWords by Hurst Publishers
Listen to lively discussions between Hurst authors, journalists and leading experts as they interrogate the stories behind thought-provoking books.
In their new season, you’ll hear about how Pentecostal Christianity is taking over the world; the rise and fall of the Sikh empire; a hundred years of British political nightmares; whether any war in history has gone to plan; a vivid, powerful account of the Rohingya in exile; and how ordinary Ukrainians saved their nation.
AfterWords is edited by the same audio producer as Disorder, George McDonagh, and benefits from the same high production quality.
Subscribe, rate and review: podfollow.com/AfterWords
Check out Hurst's books: hurstpublishers.com
Keep track of recent development of our era of Global Enduring Disorder by following NATO & the Global Enduring Disorder on Twitter (@NATOfightsback) and LinkedIn.
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And if you have any questions, suggestions or comments please reach out at disordershow@gmail.com. We'd love to hear from you!
Thanks for reading, clicking, listening, and engaging. As always, we hope we will be writing to you from a more ‘ordered’ world, but don’t hold your breath.
Jason Pack & the Global Enduring Disorder team