Nothing became his presidency like the leaving of it
Rejoice, Rejoice, Rejoice, Greatly! The Mega-orderers will now put in their A-Team
Legend has it that when King George III heard that George Washington, had decided to retire after his second term, he remarked: “If he does that, he will be the greatest man in the world.” On July 21, 2024, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. can justifiably claim to have done one of the most heroic acts in human history. I may be quoting the Guardian Article (whose link is further down), but I am not exaggerating. Although this outcome has seemed obvious and like a no brainer for weeks now (ever since the disastrous debate performance), it is a historical aberration and Joe deserves our unmitigated praise. You can hear my praise him (and sing a little bit of Handel’s Messiah) on this link here.
The fact of the matter is that, few people voluntarily leave supreme power. Popes, Ayatollah, Presidents, Supreme Court Justices, and Dictators largely do not step down. They either die in office or lose power. Power is too addictive and seductive. Biden has stepped down and may go do in history as a modern-day Cincinnatus. He avoided the Ruth Bader Ginsburg trap. Yes, it might have been better had it happened sooner and in a more choreographed fashion rather than Adam Schiff and George Clooney having to pull him off stage left with a cane. Yet, better late than never.
To celebrate and unpack these epoch making developments Alex and I took to the airwaves. You can listen to our Emergency cast here.
Alex and I discuss where they were when they heard this momentous news; the bizarre oddities of the recent Republican National Convention; Trump’s selection of J D Vance as his running mate; the protectionist/America-first agenda of the Trump/Vance ticket; and how the Dems can now try to order the disorder globally and domestically but weaving a new narrative.
Personally, I strongly hope that the Dems do not just line up behind Harris and anoint her as that would be missing the vast opportunity for making a new narrative and putting forth a new vision to the American people… so even if it is gonna be Harris let’s have an open convention and set the discussion agenda for the nation and explain to the American people what a different form of leadership now looks like.
It is also nice to know that Obama is thinking similarly to me by positioning himself as a neutral arbiter it desnag any complexities that the process may now throw up: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/us/politics/why-obama-hasnt-endorsed-harris.html
And just so you know that Obama and I think similarly, here is Barack giving Joe his Global Mega-Orderer for a day medal:
More background reading:
NYT pundits break down the potential successor candidates: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/22/opinion/best-worst-candidates-to-replace-biden.html
Biden’s selfless decision to drop out sets stage for an entirely different election: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/21/biden-decision-drop-analysis
Nicholas Kristof: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/09/opinion/thepoint#biden-drop-out-meaning
Alexandra Hall Hall’s recent Byline Times article: ‘Assassination Attempts and the Rise of the Right – Amid the Turmoil, Britain is Emerging as a Steadying Force’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/19/assassination-attempts-and-the-rise-of-the-right-amid-the-turmoil-britain-is-emerging-as-a-steadying-force/
NATO Summit 2024 – Did it help Order the Disorder?
Last week, we had a special pod with some field reporting from the NATO 75th anniversary summit.
At the event, genuine support of Ukraine was on full display. Discussion of how to Trump-proof NATO dominated the agenda, partnerships with NATO’s southern periphery were side stepped and the war in Gaza was largely ignored. All of this was choreographed to project unity and paper over disagreements within the alliance. But do such optics actually help to Order the Disorder?
To find out we were joined by Jane Kinninmont – who was in Washington at the Summit. She tells me about the discussions on the margins of the summit – mostly about Joe Biden – and the glaring omission from the formal agenda: the Israel-Gaza conflict. She also shares a live-show discussion among her; Élie Tenenbaum, the Director of IFRI’s Security Studies Centre in Paris, just back from a mission to Kyiv; and Dr. Isabelle Werenfels, a senior fellow at the German think tank SWP. The trio opine on their impressions of the summit, the key announcements on Ukraine (which were quite minimal), the role of Spain in raising the Gaza issue, and what a Trump presidency might mean for NATO.
And for more background on the Summit, especially how to Trump-proof NATO and how the Alliance needs to handle its Southern periphery:
“Trump-proofing NATO” has been one of the buzzwords around this summit. The BBC covers the issue here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3gr90jnxjvo
The NATO summit’s official communique is here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm
Jane, Isabelle and Élie were all members of an independent experts group appointed by the NATO Secretary-General to contribute ideas on NATO’s approach to the Middle East and Africa, some of which were picked up in the summit communique. The expert group report can be found here: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/5/pdf/240507-NATO-South-Report.pdf
Jane and Isabelle wrote a version of the report here as a policy brief for SWP: https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2024C25/
Elie’s most recent study on the military situation in Ukraine can be found here: https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/politique-etrangere/articles-de-politique-etrangere/military-stakes-war-ukraine