The Disorder Podcast is A Co-Production between Goalhanger Podcasts and the Global Enduring Disorder Ltd, the Producers of this Newsletter
The Enduring Disorder Continues
Hello, Orderers! Amidst all this disorder these days, we've been a bit delayed in trying to get you this newsletter. We've been pondering, is there any semblance of order at all in today's international affairs? As bleak as things are vis-a-vis Trump's dodging justice, atrocities in Israel/Gaza, Ukraine's stalled offensive, and corruption in the very process meant to fight climate change, the Disorder podcast is dedicating to calling a spade a spade, searching for interconnections, and proposing solutions. To listen to the journey so far, click here.
Now it is Jason speaking here. I was hoping to use this newsletter to kvell about how well the pod is doing (we are in the top 20 of UK podcasts) and to announce our Christmas merch, etc. (next year I promise a 'Good Morning, Orderer' mug and maybe even something a bit cleverer). That said, we still thought it appropriate to make a very special Xmas DISORDER episode out on the 24th featuring some special carols from my close friends at Evoke. I think you'll like the banter and the music so pls tune in then.
But I digress. The focus of the NATO AND GLOBAL ENDURING DISORDER Project needs to be focussed on proposing and pushing out actual big ideas about how to attack the world's pressing crises. And that doesn't seem to be how mainstream media, counter-cultural media, or even think tanks respond to our current crises. The coverage of the war in the Middle East strikes me as 'all heat and no light'. Global anti-semitism and absurd conspiracy theories about Jews are at fever pitch. The insanity of what is being said on college campuses and in fringe media about the motivations of Jews and Israelis is beyond dangerous, it appears to be about much more than Jews or the current war, but rather the seeds of the rise of even more virulent forms of neo-populism and post-Truth politics on both the hard left and neo-populist Right.
And yet, Israel, in addition to causing unspeakable and inexcusable harm on Palestinians, has pulled a reverse Abba Eban, itself missing an opportunity and scoring a massive own goal by granting Hamas and Palestinian rejectionism in general an opportunity to play the victim. Knowing how poorly their military strategy is playing with the world's media and how inhuman it has been for Palestinian civilians, what underpins Israeli calculations as the war pushes southward in the strip? Is there any rational thought process at all? It seems to me that the Israeli invasion of Gaza continues with firm rhetorical objectives that seem entirely un-achievable on the terrain of battle - the annihilation of Hamas and the restoration of full deterrence vis-a-vis other adversaries. Neither can be achieved given the state of global sympathies. But Bibi has shown he is simply in fantasy land by distancing himself from Biden and publicly denouncing any kind of two state solution. Pure lunacy, presumably his whole strategy is triangulated with his need to stay aligned to the Settler movement given his legal troubles. In short, Bibi has shown yet again that even with the fate of a nation on his shoulders he is a disorderer. Not because he is Israeli or Jewish, but because he is a neopopulist no different from Boris, Trump, or Orban. There is nothing Jewish or conspiratorial or uniquely inhumane about his actions, in fact, Bibi's actions are all too ordinary in our age of Enduring Disorder, and would likely have been done by any Christian neopopulist in a similar situation. None of this minimizes, excuses, or justifies the suffering of innocent Palestinian children and women. It merely explains another example of a world where neopopulists are more than happy to pursue scorched earthed policies against internal and external enemies independent of any human costs it might have for migrants, children, or anyone who is not their constituents.
A real strategist seeking to foster order would have linked Israeli military objectives with Western and Sunni Gulf Arab diplomatic efforts to forge a consensus over a medium-term plan for the administration of the post-War Gaza Strip's devastated and besieged population. My efforts as you will see below are entirely focused on this objective. Yet this is even further away from emerging than at the start of the conflict. And bizarrely it is not what any major sustained global diplomatic efforts are focused on. So my offhand take is the same one I articulated on the first Disorder pod we did on the topic (bonus Episode after ep 6), the Israelis lost the war militarily before the sun had set on the evening of October 7th. That said, I think a different Israeli leadership could have possibly elected a different strategy to win the peace after having lost the war, but it is too late for that now. The Israelis have lost both the war and the peace. And both Palestinians and Israelis will suffer immensely for this. So my personal view is that the Israeli defeat/debacle and the Palestinian humanitarian nightmare are both already in the books. And the rest is just disorder.
In other wars of the Enduring Disorder, Ukrainian President Zelensky visited the US to drum up financial support amidst rising Republican isolationism and the commencement of the momentous showdown of the 2024 electoral process with the Republican primary season beginning in Iowa in less than a month's time. In Myanmar, the October 27 surprise attack of three ethnic 'pro-democracy' militias, the Three Brothers Alliance, poses the greatest threat to the authoritarian military regime yet. Meanwhile in Sudan, regional bloc IGAD announced that the country's warring Generals had agreed to meet, as ethnic violence with the hallmarks of ethnic cleansing continues in the Darfur region. In Dubai, the COP28 Conference promised the "beginning of the end of fossil fuels", as COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber commended the "robust action plan to keep 1.5C in reach." We will believe that when we see it! Tragically but not shockingly, next year's summit will be in Azerbaijan, which just seized Nagorno-Karabakh and conducted ethnic cleansing that the world has essentially let stand by turning its back on the Armenians.
Who can be trusted to order the disorder? It is as yet very unclear but we are trying our best to propose some ideas.
The Disorder Show is a project of Global Enduring Disorder Ltd in partnership with Goalhanger Podcasts, the UK's largest independent podcast company and producer of such acclaimed shows as The Rest is Politics.
Find our linktree here and don't forget to follow the new Disorder Show Twitter/X account @Disordershow! Please find below some of our team's other interventions in the debate especially about the post-War governance of Gaza.
Listen Now
Battleground: Possible Post Conflict Solutions for Gaza
Patrick Bishop and Saul David discuss the conflict in Gaza and what comes next, asking whether the world’s attention will bring any realistic expectation of progress on establishing a lasting peace. Jason joins the Disorder Podcast's sister show and posits that post October 7, a one-state solution makes no sense; it is asking Jews to live in a state with those who tried to massacre and abduct their children/relatives, and would give control over Israeli nukes and military assets to a Palestinian electoral majority.
Battleground Ukraine: How the Nature of Warfare is Evolving
Saul David and David Patrikarakos discuss how the nature of war continues to evolve, both on the ground and on the propaganda front, and David recounts his recent experiences in Ukraine and thoughts on Drone technologies.
KEEN ON: Is the current Gazan ceasefire a mirage?
In this KEEN ON show, Andrew Keen talks to Jason Pack about Qatar, Iran, Biden, Hamas, Israel and the road to order in the disordered Middle East.
Parallax Views with J. G. Michael: Negotiating With Hamas, the Quest for Peace and More
The Middle East Director of International Communities Organisation, negotiator and peace activist Gershon Baskin tells not only of the human suffering of the Kibbutzim on Oct 7th but of his personal journey working with Hamas. At 44:18 Jason Pack discusses his article Qatar is the Key to Middle East Peace.
The Two Matts: Sunak: The Breakdown
After discussing the British Prime Minister, the two Matts are joined by Jason, who unpacks the complexities in how a long term solution involving Qatar could bring at least a semblance of stability to Gaza, and how Brexit and Britain's role in the world are connected to the current mess in the Middle East. Listen here.
The Age of Disorder
What does Putin want? How about Iran, Hamas, and the GOP? Greg Olear and Jason talk about the Post-Post-Cold War, the global disorderers on the world stage, the Israel-Hamas War and its possible resolution, the strategic importance of Ukraine, and more. Listen here.
The Bunker: How to Solve Israel-Gaza
Jason joins Andrew Harrison at the Bunker to discuss how we might find a way out of the current and future crises in Israel-Palestine. Listen here.
The Globalist: Blinken Returns to Israel
As US secretary of state Antony Blinken returns to Israel later this week, Gregg Carlstrom breaks down what he might be hoping to achieve. Listen here.
New Perspectives on Disorder
What is the Path to peace in Gaza?
Jason: This article contains all of the main possible concepts for solutions except, because they emerge from the mainstream, they are completely ignoring the role of the Qataris and are hence, to my mind, unimplementable. Read here.
Is Hamas ISIS?
Social media abounds with conflations of the two terrorist organizations, distinct in their goals and at conflict with one other. But why? And how might this conflation impact international understanding and policy? Former Project Coordinator Guy Fiennes writes for the Institute for Strategic Dialogue. Read here.
Qatar is the Key to Peace in Postwar Gaza
American and British diplomats should be working on creating a pan-Arab coalition to administer postwar Gaza — and Qatar’s role would be particularly important. Jason writes in the Boston Globe. Read here.
Bring in NATO Forces: The Plan Israel Should Present for Postwar Gaza
"If the United States and Israel’s other allies don’t support Israel’s remaining in Gaza, there’s no choice but to send a military intervention force of NATO countries, sponsored by the United Nations Security Council." Then, Netanyahu's bloodthirsty government must be outed and the process for a two-state solution can begin. Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert writes in Haaretz. Read here.
The Israel-Hamas War: Searching for Moral Clarity Amid Conflict
"On some days, I’m appalled by statements by Hamas leaders, vowing to continue their attacks on Israel. On other days, I’m appalled by statements by right-wing Israelis, including some in government, talking about Palestinians as animals who need to be destroyed..."
Alexandra Hall Hall writes on the moral complexities of the ongoing conflict, and whether the US and UK should have supported the ceasefire vote, in Byline Times. Read here.
Is the U.S. Using All Its Leverage in Gaza?.
Washington has influence and, with its allies, could shape an endgame that serves long-term U.S. interests. Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig write in Foreign Policy. Read here.
The Disorder Endures...
We are living through an unprecedented era. International institutions like the UN are incapable of tackling global challenges, disrupting powers are deliberating whether to promote chaos rather than order, while like-minded countries fail to coordinate on transnational threats. Meanwhile, a slew of leaders are acting in their own self-interests rather than looking out for their people. The result? Crisis, tragedy, Enduring Disorder.
Listen Now
BONUS EPISODE
The Moral and Military Dynamics at Play in Ukraine and Gaza with David Patrikarakos
In this bonus episode, Jason discusses his mom’s Thanksgiving stuffing recipe as he is joined by our roving correspondent – David Patrikarakos – who missed Turkey Day in London choosing to go to Ukraine and Gaza instead. The pair ‘drone’ on about the use of Iranian Shahid drones in both conflicts, the similarities and differences in the moral and military calculus in Ukraine as opposed to Gaza, and how today’s easy access to technology means traditionally lesser military powers can achieve a modicum of leveling up with their more 1st world opponents. The pair also try to step away from the current news cycle to debunk some historical misconceptions about both conflicts. Listen here.
Episode 15: NATO: An Alliance for the Future? With Kurt Volker
In this week’s episode, Jason and Alex are joined by Kurt Volker, former US Ambassador to NATO and former US Special Representative to Ukraine. The wide-ranging discussion tries to unpack NATO’s role in our increasingly disordered world. They examine what makes NATO successful where the UN and other international organizations falter, and discuss both the 2023 NATO summit in Lithuania and the 2023 Tbilisi International Conference, entitled “Defeating Putinism.” They also look forward to next year’s supremely important NATO summit in Washington with bated breath, a moment that not only marks 75 years since NATO’s creation, but ‘should be’ the moment that NATO offers Ukraine concrete steps to membership. Plus: they mull over the late Senator John McCain’s legacy and the US’s role in NATO, as the momentous 2024 election approaches. Listen Here.
Episode 14: Is Disinformation Destroying Democracy?
Disinformation and culture wars are an existential problem for democracies. They foster negative feedback loops whereby internal divisions inside democracies make us more vulnerable to hostile external actors spewing misinformation, who then exploit those divisions to create more vulnerability to misinformation, culminating in culture wars. These kind of negative feedback loops are another symptom of our era of Global Enduring Disorder.
In this episode, Alex and Jason are joined by Laura Thornton, Senior Vice President for democracy at GMF. They discuss how social media algorithms promote disinformation, culture wars, and a rise in contempt for experts. In the Ordering the Disorder section, they’ll talk about the fight for neutral facts and how we could rethink our electoral systems to strengthen our democracies in the UK and US. Listen here.
Listen to the Disorder Pod Here
▪If you have not already, we would like to invite you to follow NATO & the Global Enduring Disorder on Twitter (@NATOfightsback) and LinkedIn. We post updates on articles as they are released, keeping track of recent developments of the Enduring Disorder.
If you enjoy listening to the Disorder Pod as much as we enjoyed making it, please, pretty please share on your social media, text and whatsapp the linktree link or apple podcasts link to friends, and tell your colleagues about it so that we can reach as many people as possible, produce more episodes and get this show off the ground!
Thanks for reading, clicking, listening, and engaging. As always, we hope we will be writing to you from a more ‘ordered’ world, but don’t hold your breath.
Jason Pack & the Global Enduring Disorder team