Is the death of an enemy of order, a killer of many innocents, a repressor of dissent something to be celebrated? No not really. Ebrahim Raisi was not a man with many redeeming qualities but his death doesn’t make the world a safer place and hence it is nothing to rejoice.
The Ukraine episode about the Russian advance on Kharkiv that I gave the teaser of last week is now out (listen here), but it now begins with a with a short emergency-cast about the crash of the Iranian President’s helicopter due to fog. Unfortunately, the death of this ‘disorderer-in-chief’ is very unlikely to bring any more order to the Middle East region… in fact, it is likely to facilitate the hard-liners further consolidation of all offices of state in Iran… Why do we know this… I am not sure but Iran experts from Chatham House, BBC, Crisis Group, and others all seem to agree.
For a quick overview of Iranian President Raisi’s death and what happens next: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/world/europe/raisi-iran-instability.html
Now pls do check out Saul David’s insights about the Russian offensive in Kharkiv:
And of course, because I started the ep bragging about the good weather (we recorded last friday), of course it has been pouring all day in London.
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Lastly, I’ve had a few super fan questions about the ICC warrants for Bibi and Sinwar. I stand with Haaretz on this: ‘Analysis |
Jerusalem, Not The Hague: Israel Must Investigate Netanyahu for Crimes Against Humanity in Gaza
The only effective way of responding to the ICC's request for arrest warrants is to convene an Israeli state commission of inquiry to examine if Gaza's population was deliberately starved – not cry antisemitism and Nazism’
This is what Haaretz is saying but Most of the media coverage is going on about the ways in which it is either appropriate or inappropriate to form any kind of equivalence btw the actions these two men. My view is that the two warrants just showcase how hollow the international order is. There is a zero percent chance that either man will be tried in the Hague. Therefore making such a warrant showcases how flimsy the ability to enforce and coordinate international law is at this moment and that clearly the ICC is not the right venue for these issues to be dealt with. Or in the words of the UK’s government, ‘“help get hostages out, get aid in, or deliver a sustainable ceasefire.” This might be the one thing I agree wholeheartedly with Sunak about.
For more on the state of play with the ICC warrants read from the Guardian— https://www.theguardian.com/law/article/2024/may/20/icc-prosecutor-seeks-arrest-warrants-israeli-pm-netanyahu-hamas-officials-war-crimes?mc_cid=414ac687aa&mc_eid=b844138f36