If you come for the King, best not miss

Nato: A biography, and words of appreciation from Sweden

In bye gone moons, Trump inadvertently quoted Ralf Waldo Emerson, “When you strike at the King, you must kill him.” Yet on Saturday July 13, Donald Trump survived an attempt to gun him down at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Will this be one of those pivotal moments which go down in history - like the assassination of Lincoln; of Archduke Franz Ferdinand; JFK, RFK, or MLK? Or will it be like with Gavrilo Princip’s predecessors, assassins are only remembered if they succeed. Others tried to assassinate the Archduke and History won't remember them because they missed.

If ever, any situation demanded an Emergency-Cast this was it! Hence, I raced from Saltsjoboden (where I was playing the Swedish Open of Backgammon) back to Stockholm to check in to my hotel early and record with Alex.

Leaving paradise early was difficult, but I think it was worth it for this emergency cast. Listen to our efforts, here.

On the pod, Alex and I predict that Thomas Matthew Crooks will not be a household name for long and the impact he will have on history is likely very much the opposite of what he might have intended. Alex shares how she felt while hearing the news at a baseball tournament, while Jason shares his experience hearing the news from Saltsjoboden at the Swedish Open of backgammon. Professional gamblers noted to Jason that after the assassination attempt that the betting markets moved instantly in favour of Trump, even more so than after Biden’s poor debate performance.

As always Jason and Alex try to order the disorder by discussing the messianic narratives around Trump and how his supporters always viewed him as a perennial victim/martyr. Now having survived this attempt on his life, it seems likely that his saintliness and blessedness in their eyes will morph into a kind of hagiography. We conclude by discussing how the Democrats could use this moment to try to rally the country together around a new kind of unifying vision.

For More Background on the Assassination, the RNC, or Trump’s VP Pick:

JD Vance selected as Trump’s running mate: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-announces-ohio-senator-j-d-vance-his-2024-running-mate

Many high profile figures believe that surviving the assassination attempt makes Trump’s re-election a done deal: https://www.euronews.com/culture/2024/07/15/the-election-is-over-celebrities-react-to-donald-trump-assassination-attempt

Trump says he will announce VP pick: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-rnc-news-biden

For More on the Republican convention:

As Alex mentioned: Judge dismisses classified documents case against Trump: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-documents-case-dismissed

Alistair and Rory on how the Assassination attempt will affect the US election and how Rory survived an Assassination attempt against him in Iraq:

Little did we Know that Sir Keir was also in Saltsjoboden when I was there:

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Last week was NATOs 75th Summit – Was it Where the real Ordering happens?

NATO is the longest lasting and most successful military alliance in human history. Today NATOs 75th Summit in Washington, DC comes to a close. What can NATO’s past tell us about its likely future?

To commemorate this symbolic occasion, Jason was joined by Peter Apps. He is the author of ‘Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO’, a global defence columnist for Reuters, and a British Army reservist. He has reported from more than 20 countries over two decades, despite being paralyzed in a frontline car crash in Sri Lanka in 2006.

Jason and Peter discuss: Lord Ismay’s dictum; how has the Ukraine war affected the alliance?; how important are personalities to the alliance and how it works?; and how can NATO’s history, institutional biography, and legacy of diplomatic flexibility shed some light on how it might respond to the unprecedented challenges around it — from the rise of the far right in National Rally in France, the AfD in Germany, to the spectre of Trump — and the challenges posed to NATO by Putin, Xi, climate change, AI, and misinformation.

LISTEN HERE.

For the MEGA-Orderers to OD on NATO:

Peter’s book Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO: the "astonishingly fine history" of the world's most successful military alliance https://www.amazon.co.uk/Deterring-Armageddon-Biography-astonishingly-successful/dp/103540575X

Listen to Disorder Ep6. NATO: A Model for Ordering the Disorder? with Kori Shacke, Timothy Garton Ash, Jamie Shea and Charles Kupchan: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/9472a8b7d262dd9fb0cd9827e8947964

About the NATO Defense College Foundation: https://www.natofoundation.org/about-us/

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And for our paying subscribers, I share a tribute to the mega-orderers of the backgammon world (Thanks to Paul Ra):