How Artificial Intelligence-powered Disinformation may cause electoral mayhem?
Miles Taylor and the fragility of democracy
Hello Orderers, We have another cheery subject today. It isn’t Genocide but might be even scarier… AI influenced Election fraud ending democracy. And yes, I am still figuring out how to do this substack properly so I promise that content and delivery will get better overtime… I also think next week’s substack will be pretty exciting as I’ll be telling the story of my interview yesterday with this man:
For those who don’t know this is Bill Browder and I was EXTREMELY HONOURED to spend an hour and a half with him yesterday talking about Navalny, Russia, Putin, and the meaning of rule the of law and justice. But I digress.
Miles Taylor and the fragility of democracy
In late January 2024, New Hampshire residents received a strange phone call. The voice of Joe Biden was telling them not to vote in the Democratic Primaries. But it wasn’t actually the President on the line… It was a deep faked robot. This was part of an unlawful attempt to disrupt the New Hampshire Presidential Primary Election. That disinformation campaign was created by easily accessible technology. Over the next months, more sophisticated attempts are almost bound to emerge seeking to disrupt the November US Presidential Elections… so what can be done to prevent AI-empowered voter suppression and help protect democracy against these very real threats?
To find out, Alex Hall Hall speaks to Miles Taylor. Miles was the Chief of Staff in the Department of Homeland Security under the Trump Administration. It was later revealed that he was the author of the famous ‘Anonymous’ essay in the New York Times entitled, ‘I am part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration’. He most recently wrote an NYT bestseller ‘Blowback’. Taylor is now the co-founder of the US Futures Policy Studio in Washington; an organisation which is looking to help policymakers better understand deep fake technology. In his discussion with Alex, he talks about his reasons for leaving the Trump Administration; the unbridled vengeance he faced as a consequence of speaking out against a Neo-Populist; and his current work bringing attention to one of the most profound threats currently facing democracies: Artificial Intelligence.
To close the show, Jason and Alex ‘Order the Disorder’ by discussing the need for fast-moving regulation around AI, why a lengthening of ‘power distance’ in American society is an indication that our democratic institutions and culture aren’t work properly anymore, and why a public information campaign ridiculing AI deep fakes could help to prepare society for these disruptive technologies.
You can listen to the episode here.
SETTING THE STAGE:
2024 is the year of elections – to be precise, as many as 64 countries in the world (plus the European Union) are set to hold elections this year – with more voters than ever before in history due to head to the polls, representing a combined total of almost 50% of people in the world – the results of which, for many, will prove consequential for years to come. Consequential polls have already taken place in Taiwan and Bangladesh. There’s a whole host of elections across Africa and the Middle East – including in South Africa, Ghana, Senegal, Chad, Mali, Mozambique, Madagascar, Botswana, Namibia, Guinea Bissau, Togo, Jordan, Tunisia, Algeria and Syria; in Asia – India, Pakistan, Korea, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Maldives, Bhutan; in Europe – Russia, Romania, Belgium, Lithuania, Belarus, Austria, Georgia, the UK, and for the European Parliament; in Latin America – for Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil, Panama, El Salvador. I cannot list them all.
But perhaps the most consequential of them all will be the elections taking place in November in the US – on current polling trends looking set to be a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden for the Presidency; as well as a host of fierce contests to secure control of the House and Senate.
This ought to be seen as a celebration of democracy – a sign of its enduring strength – with even dictators like Vladimir Putin feeling the need to adopt a veneer of democracy.
But, in practice, of course, the outcome will be pre-ordained in many places – such as Russia, Syria, Belarus, Venezuela or Iran; and in other places, there are likely to be many dirty tactics to try to buy votes, leverage resources in favour of the incumbent; stack the odds against challengers; spread disinformation, gerrymander districts etc.
To those ploys we now need to add a new danger - Artificial Intelligence powered disinformation to delude and trick voters – deep fakes, phony videos portraying things that didn’t actually happen, or twisting the words or actions of particular candidates.
Are our electoral systems strong enough to withstand this? Are voters sufficiently clued up? Are we prepared?
To help us understand the full implications of what might be about to hit us in 2024, we’re delighted to be joined today by Miles Taylor – the former Chief of Staff in the Department of Homeland Security under the Trump Administration, before he resigned in disgust over Trump’s degradation and abuse of that office. Taylor was later revealed to be the author of the famous “Anonymous” essay in the New York Times “I am part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration” – explaining how officials were trying to rein in Trump’s worst excesses for the good of the country. Taylor is now the co-founder of the US Futures Policy Studio in Washington; and also the author of the recent NYT bestseller Blowback.
(as I said I am just learning what to do in these substacks and promise to get better)
Further background on Miles’s writing, on his Anonymous essay, on the question of serving a leader that you disagree with so as to mitigate the damage they might do and on disinformation that is already happening in the USA:
Read Miles’s famous ‘Anonymous’ essay in the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html
Read why Miles unmasked himself: https://milestaylor.medium.com/a-statement-a13bc5173ee9
Read Alex’s article ‘Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Dilemma of a Conflicted Civil Servant’ in the Texas National Security Review: https://tnsr.org/2021/10/should-i-stay-or-should-i-go-the-dilemma-of-a-conflicted-civil-servant/
Get Blowback: A Warning to Save Democracy from the Next Trump
https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Blowback/Miles-Taylor/9781668015988
Read ‘Fake Biden robocall telling Democrats not to vote is likely an AI-generated deepfake’
For a range of academic and conceptual work on the concept of ‘Power Distance’, consult: https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/power-distance
Lastly, Speaking of Disorder and Spies.. Here is a little book I recommend to all the Orderers out there..
READ: A Russian Spy Ring at the Heart of the British Establishment
On The Cipher Brief, Jason Pack reviews ‘A Spy Alone: A Novel’ by former MI6 officer, using the pseudonym Charles Beaumont. “When the truths of our politics are stranger than even the most fanciful fiction, is there any merit in reading political fiction? Furthermore, can serious students, scholars, and civil servants derive real educative or entertainment value from fictionized accounts of today’s politics? A Spy Alone answers these questions in the affirmative”. Read here.