Gaza Ceasefire: What’s Next?
It's 'Ladies Night' at the Disorder Pod and like most British ladies do when the menfolk are away, Jane and Alex let their hair down and share their personal stories from being on the ground in Gaza
Gaza Ceasefire: What’s Next?
A tentative ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas has been announced by the US and Qatar. The deal would see a phased release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and an end to Israeli bombardments. If the first round of conditions are met, the cease fire should continue and culminate in further negotiations for additional swaps of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. But what’s next? Will it hold? And how do we get from this transactional bartering to longer term stability in the region?
To discuss this and more, Alex Hall Hall and Jane Kinninmont final co-host a podcast of their own.
OR WORDED DIFFERENTLY: It's 'Ladies Night' at the Disorder Pod and like most British ladies do when the menfolk are away, Jane and Alex let their hair down and share their personal stories from being on the ground in Gaza (Listen on Apple Podcasts here; and on Spotify here.)
They discuss: the challenges of establishing trust between the conflicting parties; the fragility of the deal that is currently being agreed; and the need for Western leaders who are trying to leverage the sides for further progress to also emphasise with local populations’ concerns.
Plus: does Trump’s strongman diplomacy actually work?
As they Order the Disorder, the ladies discuss the potential for a new Palestinian leadership, the importance of political will/brinksmanship, and the need for a comprehensive approach to rebuilding Gaza – including addressing economic dependencies.
(Listen on Apple Podcasts here; and on Spotify here.)
BACKGROUND ON JANE AND ALEX’S EXPERIENCES IN AND VIEWS ON GAZA
Jane’s Nov 2023 analysis on need for Europe to chart a political pathway out of the violence - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/europe-and-gaza-political-pathways-out-of-the-violence/
Jane’s 2020 article on virtual dialogue with Palestinian youth - https://theelders.org/news/palestinian-perspectives-future
Jane slags off Jared Kushner’s approach to “peace” in an oped for Haaretz during Trump 1 - https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2019-06-16/ty-article-opinion/.premium/jared-kushners-paradigm-busting-mideast-peace-deal-just-wont-work/0000017f-e9a9-d639-af7f-e9ffd4e00000
Read What Gazans Really Think of the War, Who They Blame, and What They Want to Happen Next by Alex https://bylinetimes.com/2024/09/20/gaza-hamas-israel-opinion-poll/
Polling from a youth-led Palestinian polling organisation:
https://institute4progress.org/
Key Quotes
Jane: I've had the opportunity to attend, I think, three meetings where Palestinians and Israelis from outside government have come together and discussed the conflict since October 7th began, and trauma is the word that recurs. Even among the seasoned peace activists, even among them, it's difficult to talk now and to see the way forward because each society is traumatized and they cannot empathize with the other ones. At the same time, there's a big conflict fatigue, but what's next? Because, you know, ceasefires should be the first step. And if it is the case that this is getting through because essentially Team Trump want a victory ahead of the inauguration that looks nice on TV, how does that play into sustaining a deal and getting to this next phase of who's going to be in charge in Gaza, is there an acceptance of Hamas or some members of Hamas being part of some kind of government. Is that impossible for Israel and the U. S. to support? How does it link up with the idea of actually finding a political solution when Most of the world is in favor of a two state solution, but Team Trump are not very interested in that, so there are huge risks. Um, but this is an opportunity, I think we can say… A ceasefire presents an opportunity, sometimes a short lived one, to get things working.
Alex: Everybody assumed that Trump is going to be a completely unfettered supporter of Israel. His son in law, his son in law is Jewish. He has close friends in the American Israeli community. Um, so everyone assumed he was just going to give Netanyahu carte blanche, but actually this has been turned on its head. And when he said a few days ago, there'll be hell to pay if the hostages aren't released, and everyone thought this was sort of a strong message to Hamas that. You know, the gloves are off and Israel can do what it likes in Gaza, but actually the real pressure that Trump was applying was on Netanyahu. And this is absolutely fascinating. And then Biden, who, uh, has tried to. Adopt this measured approach of behind the scenes persuasion. Um, and it's completely failed. So it is vindication for Donald Trump, I think. And I think it's an interesting herald of what we might see in Trump too, that actually he's willing to twist the arms of friends and foes alike.
Jane: The events of the past 15 months, I think, have made it harder for Palestinians and Israelis to believe in a future that involves some kind of peaceful coexistence. But sometimes there are opportunities. After periods of extreme violence, when people are really fatigued with war, when they don't see scope for violence to bring about more, if they can come to believe that people on the other side would also forswear violence and be able to live alongside them.