Ken Dekleva on India's Neopopulism and connections to the authoritarian world
Announcing of Orderers Club (paid substack subscription)
Hello Orderers,
I know you all must be feeling quiet ordered already as I sent a post out on Wednesday about India’s upcoming election, Modi’s neo-populism, and the country’s unique foreign policy. This was following up on our India episode that dropped on Tuesday. On the back of this substack post, I got a spontaneous email from a big friend of the podcast, former brilliant guest (he appears on Episode 11 alongside Jonathan Powell, and former US diplomat in Moscow and New Delhi, Ken Dekleva. Ken’s email is brilliant and presented in its entirety below.
I’ve decided to use this moment of serendipity (and some really insightful content below) to say that we will (in a month or so's time) be launching a paid ‘Orderers’ Club.
Subscriptions will cost 8$ (or 7 GBP or 7.5 Euros) a month with two months free if you subscribe for a year. To start with, subscribers will get one very special monthly insider post filled with insights. Further down the line, you will get ad free listening to the podcast; occasional bespoke ‘Club member’ only bonus podcast episodes; first dibs on live event tickets for live events in London or NYC/DC; and a yearly private Orderers Club members only zoom session with the Disorder cast and crew.
For example next week, Arthur Snell *might* share with us some insights about the Caribbean from his time as British High Commissioner to Trinidad and Tobago. And a bit after that I *might for example write* about my experience interviewing the former Armenian Prime Minister and President Armen Sarkissian to commemorate Armenian Genocide Day (which is April 24). I might also write a bit about my thoughts about Armenia, its history, and its diaspora. To give you a taste of what to expect from being in the Orderers Club, I am sending one of these special posts for free now , before they become only available to our paid up members. However, the Orderers Club is now open and you can join below! Should you wish to subscribe now, please do so and then you will have made me very happy and will have pre-paid into the system. Furthermore, the very very first person who buys a whole yearly subscription will get a free signed book from me mailed to them anywhere in the US or UK!
For those who don’t want to pay our non-paid subscribers will still get our normal email every Wednesday, covering the recent podcast episode but will not be able to access these insider deeper dive takes, such as the below. I really hope you enjoy the below post and look forward to welcoming you into our Orderers club in the future.
Hope that is clear….. and I really hope you enjoy the below post and consider subscribing to continue to access this insider content. MY COMMENTS ON KEN’S POST ARE IN [BRACKETS]
Hi Jason,
Thank you and Alex for a terrific podcast about India and Modi. I too served in New Delhi 2004-2006 and traveled regionally throughout India and the rest of South Asia, e.g. Nepal, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the GCC. (I was actually interviewed on NDTV about the rise of Aikido in India! My Aikido Sensei was Paritos Kjar, and his current top student is nine other than the head of India’s Congress Party, Rahul Gandhi.)
[Ken is the tall white guy with the green undershirt fourth from left]
India sees itself as a leader in a multipolar world [YES THEY SEE THINGS AS MULTIPOLAR EVEN IF I DO NOT], and it yet, we must not forget, plays solely to its own interests. India courts Russia, Israel, KSA, America, and even Iran, and is an active member of BRICS and the SCO. India is NOT a true US ally, but more of a friend, yet one acting in its own strategic self-interest. As I wrote below in TCB in 2021:
“The Jaishankar-Raisi meeting – his first official meeting as President – showcases a different side of Raisi. There may be more to Raisi than first appearances. The fact that he would meet with the foreign minister of one of America’s closest allies speaks volumes about his outlook, worldview, and confidence. Obviously, such a meeting had the Supreme Leader’s blessing. It may represent an important signal, even an opening, possibly hinting at Iran’s desire to shift to diplomacy, realizing that its gray zone tactics have failed to lift sanction or to better the daily lives of the Iranian people. Raisi is now President, but he’s also a likely successor as Supreme Leader. And so other leaders and high-level diplomats will now court Raisi, seeking their opening moves in the Great Game. But the Raisi-Jaishankar meeting highlights the possible re-emergence of India – and its powerful Prime Minister Narendra Modi – as a powerful regional player in a multipolar world [JASON HERE by this I WOULD SAY KEN MEANS A DISORDER NON-POLAR WORLD], as expressed in Jaishankar’s fascinating new book, The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World. But that is another tale, for another time.”
[HERE IS KEN’S ARTICLE IN CIPHER BRIEF]:
Jaishankar is one of the most brilliant foreign ministers in the world today. He served as Ambassador to the US, China, and has served in Russia. He was a key architect of the 2006 India-US nuclear deal. He is Kissingerian in breadth and scope, and his writings are a must-read in attempting to understand today’s India and its foreign policy objectives.
I agree that Modi is a fascinating, classic, neopopulist, strongman leader. He seeks to embody a rising India, and his ascetic, Yoga-practicing vigor is engaging, to say the least. It helps counter the negative perceptions of his role in the 2002 Gujarat killings. He has done many good things for India - governance outcomes matter in leadership analysis - but I too share your concerns about his embrace of Hindhutva. India is perhaps less of a pluralistic society, given Modi’s disenfranchisment of its Muslim population, yet which as Alex pointed out, is not monolithic; some of them support Modi and his economic policies. Modi is close to other strongmen such as Putin, Bibi, Trump (yes, they got along very well), Raisi, and others. Modi is also a brilliant and energetic user of social media in promoting his own image. Modi is beloved by the Indian diaspora. The key question - Modi is not young - is who will replace Modi? [THIS IS EXACTLY THE SAME QUESTION VIS PUTIN, TRUMP, ORBAN, BIBI… AS IN EACH CASE THE PERSONALITY IS THE MESSAGE AND THE CULT OF PERSONALITY IS NON-TRANSFERABLE AS IT IS NOT BASED ON A SPECIFIC ACTUAL IDEOLOGY OR SET OF POLICIES BUT A CULTIC CONNECTION TO THE LEADER]
India is thus more of an orderer, but not in the post-WW2 American-led order, and is thus more of a disruptor w/r to that US-led order, and it instead sees itself as a rising leader in a multipolar world. [WOW, I LOVE HOW KEN HAS PROBLEMATIZED THIS… INDIA IS PLAYING THE ROLE OF DISORDERER VIS A VIS THE INSITUTIONS AND ORDER WE HAVE NOW BUT COULD BE AN ORDERER RELATIVE TO DIFFERENT INSTITUTIONS. I AGREE WITH THIS TO SOME EXTENT BUT RATHER SEE INDIA AS A POWER WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DO ORDERING IF IT SO DESIRES]
Here is a fascinating link about the late Ambassador Kadakin (who lived in India for decades and who served twice as Russian Ambassador there):
Kadakin's Surprise Death: Tectonic Shock to Indo-Russian Ties
The Russia-India relationship is both historic and complex.
The other part of your show was the amazing discussion about the role of women voters in democratic societies ruled by charismatic, populist leaders. This is worth exploring further, no? Think about it. [I CERTAINLY WILL HAVE AN EPISODE ON THIS AS WOMEN INCREASINGLY HAVE DIFFERENT VOTING PATTERNS THAN MEN THROUGHOUT THE WORLD AND APPEAR LESS LIKELY TO BE DRAWN TO NEOPOPULISM] In America, a small number (e.g. a few thousand in each battleground state) women, independent suburban voters in 5-6 states will decide whether Trump becomes our next President. It’s a discussion worth of comparison with KSA, Pakistan, India, Indonesia, and other countries in the global south, where women are key voting blocs.
Best,
Ken
Thank you ever so much for sharing these insights, Ken… and I can’t wait to have you back on Disorder to chew the fat about the psychology of these various neo-populists and some of the thorny negotiations that might be needed vis Israel/Gaza, Ukraine/Russia, and many many other domains. In short, if you enjoyed Ken’s missive and you feel it added to the experience of the podcast. (If you haven’t listened to the India episode you can here.)
Without any further ado, Freedom is not Free. Nor is sharing truthful content about the threat of neopopulists and the genuine extent of Disorder in the world today. We at the Disorder pod, produce the podcast at a big big loss (i.e. we spend thousands more to produce it each month then we can possibly generate on advertising revenue) and joining our paid Orderers Club would be enormously helpful to keep us long term sustainable!