Former Armenian President Sarkissian (Part I) on: Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day
And the plight of Nagorno-Karabakh at present
Hello Orderers: April 24th marks Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, but the tragic Ottoman massacres of Armenians of over a century ago have been largely forgotten in mainstream Western consciousness. Why?
In the first of a two-part series, Jason is joined by Dr Armen Sarkissian, a world-renowned theoretical physicist, diplomat, and businessman. LISTEN HERE. He was Armenia’s president from 2018 to 2022 and also its prime minister from 1996 to 1997. In their interview, they discuss the century old genocide, the novel round of ethnic cleansing that happened seven short months ago in Nagorno-Karabakh, how in the 1990s Armenia could have forged a peace deal from a position of strength with Azerbaijan but missed the opportunity, and why the legacy and implications of the Armenian genocide have been largely forgotten but are essential to maintaining any form of global order.
YOU CAN LISTEN to the episode by clicking HERE. Next week I will share more about Dr Sarkissian’s very interesting ideas about the role small smart states can play into today’s Enduring Disorder
Some thoughts and questions about the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh:
There has just been the big EU aid package to Armenia… but according to a Eurasia net article: “The Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process is currently snagged on a dispute over possession of villages in disputed areas of the border. Hoping to break the deadlock, Pashinyan announced unilateral concessions to Azerbaijan, agreeing to hand over abandoned Azerbaijani villages controlled by Yerevan since the 1990s without demanding an exchange for similar Armenian areas controlled by Azerbaijan. The transfer has the potential to disrupt the ability of Armenians to travel on a highway linking Armenia to Georgia. Pipelines carrying Russian natural gas to Armenia are also located near the soon-to-be-returned villages. Pashinyan’s proposal has, accordingly, generated lots of domestic pushback from various constituencies.”
10. Newsweek has just published a piece with the provocative title “Armenia Under Siege” which states: “Just months after ethnically cleansing Nagorno-Karabakh, which Armenians call Artsakh, when the Azeri government forced 100,000 Armenians to flee from what was their homeland for a millennia, Azerbaijan has recently attacked several parts of its border with Armenia. Yet, the world remains silent. Azerbaijan has avoided the imposition of Western sanctions that have affected rogue states like Russia, Belarus, and Iran. Instead of turning itself into an international pariah, the regime of Ilham Aliyev has attracted increased infrastructure investments from European sources.”
Is this just because of Europe’s addiction to Azeri gas in the wake of sancations against Russia or is there more at play here?
Just today the Guardian has run the following article: Armenian PM defends decision to give four villages to Azerbaijan: Nikol Pashinyan urges calm after making concessions in attempt to avoid war with his country’s heavily armed neighbour
This leads to the question is these further appeasement or sound policy to try to end the conflict when Armenia is politically, militarily, and diplomatically overmatched by Azerbaijan at present?
Even the BBC is sounding alarm bells with its article: Armenians fear new war with Azerbaijan despite talk of peace.
I quote from it,
When more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh last September, Nina Shahverdyan and her brother, parents and cousin spent 30 hours on the road trying to leave……
Only last month Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned that Azerbaijan was looking to start "a new, large-scale war". He has since agreed to hand back four abandoned border villages in a sign of improving relations….
Both Russia and the Russian-led CSTO military alliance of which Armenia is a member stayed neutral and refused to intervene in the most recent conflict with Azerbaijan. And Moscow has also failed to deliver $200m of Russian-made weapons which Yerevan had already paid for….
"We don't want you to say: 'Oh no, Azerbaijan is 50m from here'," the Armenian leader said. "We want you to be able to say: 'Wow, Azerbaijan is 50m from here, let's go trade there.''
After three decades of enmity and war that seems quite a step.
Even if the two leaders can agree terms, Alexander Iskandaryan of The Caucasus Institute is sceptical of such a warm peace, and independent Azerbaijani expert Zaur Shiriyev agrees.
"It's important not to overemphasise the peace agreement."
The current situation certainly raises more question than answers. I will quote some questions from my close friend Amir who teaches Diaspora Armenians and follows these issues far more closely than I do:
Can you give us a bird's eye view of the situation on the ground vis-a-vis Azeri forces inside Armenia proper? Do Azeri troops control parts of Syunik and Tavush, as some reports indicate?
2. Armenia has large and influential diaspora communities in countries like France, Israel and the U.S. (The current war between Israel and Hamas has underscored the potential of these communities to affect policy and unite in solidarity and support.) What role do you see these communities playing in Armenia's future, and what role do you see Armenia playing in theirs?
3. In 1981 Israel annexed the Golan Heights, and in 2019 the U.S. recognized Israeli sovereignty over the territory. Russia repeatedly stated that had Armenia annexed Karabakh, the treaty between the two countries would have forced Russia to defend the territory against Azeri aggression, and perhaps the U.S. could also have been persuaded to recognize an Armenian claim to sovereignty over parts of the territory. Why did Armenia avoid annexing Shushi and Stepanakert, and are the Russians being sincere when they say they would have reacted differently to the Azeri attack or is it anti-Pashinyan propaganda?
4. Given Russia's reaction to other Caucasian and Eastern European countries' shift toward Western democracy, most notably Georgia and Ukraine, was it a foregone conclusion that Putin would allow Karabakh to fall to Azerbaijan as retribution for Armenia's Westward drift?
5. How did the Armenian intelligence community fail to anticipate the Azeri invasion of Karabakh, and why wasn't the military equipped to deal with Azeri drone technology?
6. Lets return to Kasparov to give a human face to this problem… many people forget that Kasparov and his family had to flee anti-Armenian pogroms in Baku in January 1990 that were coordinated by local leaders with Soviet acquiescence. How has the history of anti-Armenian pogroms lead to the diaspora and its connection to Karabakh..
7. Do you envision a future where Armenians return to Shushi and Stepanakert, or has such a future been made unrealistic given the circumstances?
8. Over the years there had been numerous proposals to partition Karabakh and allow Azeris to return to parts of the territory while Armenians would remain in other parts. Why were these proposals never accepted, and in hindsight was it a mistake on Armenia's part to reject them?
9. Could an invasion be in the offing?
10. And what about the Armenian patriarch in the old city of Jerusalem… there is a huge scandal with his selling the patriarchates land to an Australian property developer… what should be done about this?
More Background Links
Orderers, If you are moved to help the plight of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh we recommend you donate to 'The Tumo Foundation 501(c)3' for Artsakh Teens here: https://armenia.tumo.org/t4at/
Get Dr Armen Sarkissian’s book The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-small-states-club/
For the Encyclopedia Brittanica Definition of the Armenian Genocide: https://www.britannica.com/event/Armenian-Genocide/Genocide
Armenia Under Siege: https://www.newsweek.com/armenia-under-siege-opinion-1889040
On Calouste Gulbenkian as Mr 5%, and the wealthiest man in the world in his day: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/jan/03/mr-five-per-cent-calouste-gulbenian-worlds-richest-man
Controversial land sale puts Jerusalem Armenians on edge: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65876162
On other notes, For more on if Israel or Hamas is winning in Gaza…https://unherd.com/2024/04/the-israel-gaza-war-has-changed-everything
And for Foreign Affairs recent article about the increasing role of Small States in our dog eat dog world..