Fool me twice: Shame on me

And 'Go East young Dems!' and for PAID SUBSCRIBERS the death of the PC humour police

The Return of the Continental Divide

Every commentator and their mothers are sharing their analyses of why the Democrats lost, why they were out of touch with the vibe and concerns of the American people, how the party needs to rebuild, how to change the Dems’ economic policies, and how exactly to jettison the out of touch woke-brigade. But what I don’t hear people saying is the party needs to move Eastward. Not to the center economically, just Eastward on accent and culture. And yet it is the need for this Eastward shift that is electorally staring us in the face! If we had gone with a candidate hailing from the East or MidWest or even the South or the Plain States, I doubt the electoral map would have looked like this:

This is a map of how each American county directionally voted differently from 2020 to 2024. Red arrows moving to the right are more Trump differential in 2024 then in 2020.

(These red arrows do not necessarily represent more Trump votes as usually they represent Harris getting many fewer votes than Biden per county as many previous Dems sat out this election)

And yet with this information staring us straight in the faces that people who lived West of the Continental divide largelly voted exactly the same in 2024 as in 2020 whereas people who lived West of the Continental Divide voted 5 points less for the Dems, why are people not getting into this? I mean why isn’t the media and the pundit class talking about the East Coast+Central States vs. West Coast dynamics here. The point is the sway to Trump in 2024 by Biden voters in 2020 or the depression of Dem vote from 2020 to 2024 is a phenomenon that didn’t happen as one moved further Westward. To me this tells me a lot about identity. Kamala had West Coast energy and East Coasters and Middle State-ers reacted against her. Biden has/had East coast and MidWest Energy. This is more than accent, it is his life story and way of being and seeing the world.

The meaning is Dems should run someone from a MidWestern swing state or from PA. We need a candidate from East of the Continental divide as all of the swing states other than Arizona and Nevada are East of that divide and many of the inhabitants of those two Western states actually come from East of that divide. Like duh.

Americans are still statriotic and connect with people who have similar accents and life stories. I believe if the Dems had run Shapiro as VP we could have carried PA. If that had been combined with Gretchen Whitmer at the top of the ticket we might have won the election. It seems also quite clear that Dems should run someone genuinely religious, preferably Catholic. None of this is rocket science, it is and has always been right there in the Data.

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Fool me twice: Shame on me

The Disorderer-in-Chief is now President-Elect:

We at the Disorder Podcast can’t say we didn’t see it coming. In fact, we predicted on the pod and on our Ordering the Disorder substack that he was favourite to win. (Many other left of centre commentators ‘predicted that Harris would win’ rather than analyzing the fundamentals of the race and Harris’s candidacy. This cheerleadering puts our profession as analysts in disrepute.)

But as the post-mortems are bouncing around the internet, we must ask (and we do in today’s episode of Disorder) what one factor most led to this outcome: was it the economy, was it woke gone overboard, was it misinformation, was it the anti-incumbency mood? Which factors predominated in making Harris unelectable? And how did the Democratic party allow itself to be fooled again and fight the election on losing issues? And were Americans fooled by false promises? And duped by misinformation about the issues?

And given Trump’s resounding victory what is next – will he deport millions of Americans, launch a trade war that drives inflation skywards, and give Musk the keys to the regulatory castle to endlessly enrich himself – and will the American electorate care in 4 years’ time?

In this episode (listen here), Alex Hall Hall and Jason Pack discuss the major reasons underpinning Trump’s win. Including: the cultural shifts in the United States, the fact that Trump’s criminality and venality may actually be seen by many of his voters as a positive (i.e. they voted for him not despite the fact that he is a convicted felon but BECAUSE OF IT), and how the Republicans were brutally effective in their advertising and narrative crafting.

Amidst all the tumult, the Disorder pod’s co-hosts attempt to take stock globally and personally. Alex – a Brit turned American – and Jason – an American turned Brit – reflect on their own changing identities and how the result makes them feel in their guts. Plus: listener questions tackle topics like the future of Europe and NATO, could Trump change the constitution, could Trump actually deliver what people want, what about Bitcoin, and whether America could become yet another Russia-style oligarchy.

Background Links

Read Alex’s Byline Times Article - ‘Democrats Need to Stop Blaming Trump’s Voters and Admit the Party Must Change’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/07/democrats-need-to-stop-blaming-trumps-voters-and-admit-the-party-must-change/

What the Founding Fathers Would Say About Trump’s Win: “I told you so.”: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/08/what-the-founding-fathers-would-say-about-trumps-win/?tpcc=editors_picks&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors%20Picks%2011092024&utm_term=editors_picks

Trump’s Historic Chief of Staff Pick, and What Elon Musk Wants Now: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/podcasts/trump-chief-of-staff-musk.html

Amsterdam bans protests after 'antisemitic squads' attack Israeli soccer fans:  https://www.reuters.com/world/israels-pm-aware-very-violent-incident-against-israelis-amsterdam-his-office-2024-11-08/

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Time to Dismantle the Woke Police and Cancel culture

If something good could come out of the travesty of this election it might be the Left abandoning PC. It is good to make fun of people and good to break down taboos. No speech (even hate speech) should be banned. We need to attack the Right wing on their terms and make fun of them just as they do of the Left.

I’ve always been anti-PC and anti-woke. Affirmative action and quotas don’t work. Telling people they can’t post about Holocaust denial, doesn’t make people believe in history. It all just backfires. We need to win the argument not just say that opposing views are too hateful and shouldn’t be posted. There should be a major inappropriate humour offensive against the Trumpkins.

The era of PC and safe spaces and getting offended should now be declared official over: we all must be able to say anything we find funny... so here are two jokes from substack-istan on this theme:

1) A fascist, a pedophile and a tv host walk into a bar. The bartender says “Your regular Mr. Trump”? And proceeds to make an arnold palmer.

And 2) What do a tornado and a hillbilly divorce have in common? Someone’s gonna lose a trailer.

For more such jokes and extra content pls subscribe to the pay version: