EMERGENCY CAST: Israel Strikes Back: Foolish Revenge or Calculated De-escalation?
Does Choreography work well outside of Ballet?
Hello Mega Orderers,
You can listen to this Emergency Cast of Disorder here.
We assess the retaliatory cycles in our Mad Mad Mad Mad and sometimes quite revengeful world.
In the early morning hours of 19 April, American officials told major news outlets (like ABC, BBC, and NPR) that an Israeli missile had struck central Iran near its nuclear research sites. No one was harmed. Officially, the Israelis are not claiming to have attacked; and Iran is not claiming to have been attacked. So nothing doing here?
However, Israel had just told the Americans two days ago that they would actually retaliate in the next 24-28 hours and that their earlier statement that they wouldn’t retaliate till after Passover was just misinformation… So it is distinctly possible that this pinprick strike combined with denials on all sides will satisfy both parties and avert further retaliation. Conversely, it is also distinctly possible that it will lead to further cycles of revenge and escalation.
To Order this Disorder, Jason is joined for an Emergency Cast (and our first ever less than 8 hour turn around on an episode) by our returning champion Arthur Snell and our great Scottish hopeful, Jane Kinninmont -- Policy & Impact Director at the European Leadership Network (an institution specializing in preventing nuclear war). The trio discuss: 1) why did Israel choose to retaliate, even though Biden counselled them to ‘Bank the Win’; 2) if this event even counts as retribution for the Iranian strikes of 14 April or could be classified as a non-strike as it is below the threshold of certain previous Israeli actions inside Iran; and 3) how Iran’s and Israel’s Sunni Arab neighbors are responding.
See the Iranian TV is showing that there is nothing to see in Isfahan all is just normal and peaceful
Mulling over this unique historical moment, the trio use the Ordering the Disorder segment to propose opportunities for sage diplomacy to prevail and de-escalate tensions. Of course, the mere existence of these win-win, mutually beneficial, off-ramps from further conflict, does not mean that the Iranians or Israelis will seizes these opportunities.
But interestingly some Iranian intellectuals and former diplomats are counselling that the time for diplomacy may have arrived:
Javid Ghorban-Oghli, a former Iranian ambassador to South Africa, writes, “It seems that an opportune moment has arisen for the country’s diplomatic apparatus to harvest the fruits of military action against Israel and now negotiate with America from a position of strength.” Sadegh Zibakalam, a professor at the University of Tehran, expresses a similar viewpoint. He suggests that “now, given the disagreements between the U.S. and Israel, Iran has an opportunity to engage in direct negotiations with America for once, so as to advance its interests through diplomatic means rather than ideology.”
And maybe now is an interesting moment to assess—Does Choreography work well outside of Ballet?
Both the Iranian strikes of April 14 and the Israeli response of April 19 may have been elaborately choreographed with the Americans to create a semblance of retaliation without engendering more violence. So possibly there is a chance to say that these strikes are all just for show and that cooler heads are actually prevailing. We shall no doubt be returning to this topic shortly.
You can listen to this Emergency Cast of Disorder here.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
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For more Background on what is happening:
For a quick overview of April 19th’s events: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/04/israel-carries-out-strikes-isfahan-iran-reports?mc_cid=a8bfe16bdf&mc_eid=b844138f36
For Iranian narratives of the confrontation with Israel: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/out-of-the-shadow-war-iranian-narratives-of-the-confrontation-with-israel/
For Arthur Snell’s Substack, ‘Not All Doom’:
And for his podcast ‘Behind the Lines’:
Join ELN’s roundup of the Persian language news: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=f9c4fc8e446f80bb4d50ed06f&id=ca7882ea45
For the Guardian’s live updates https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/apr/19/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-iran-israel-today-explosions-isfahan