Does our Evolutionary biology facilitate our Global Disorder?
And the Libyan oil stoppage, Russia, and the chaotic push till November
Hello Mega-Orderers,
Have we got a treat for you this week!
Here at the disorder program we hope and believe that human societies and governments can diagnose and analyze the challenges facing them, study the past, commission expert reports on possible solutions and choose the best options to maximize long-term utility and sustainability. We also believe that humans and governments are naturally collaborative. But what if that is the wrong way of looking at things, what if culture and evolutionary biology drive how decisions are made and hoping for governments or even businesses to collaboration and maximize their long term utility is missing how humans make decisions? Furthermore, what if a unique period from 1815-2003 did allow some governments and empires to choose governance strategies primarily based on long term interests but the last two decades have witnessed the return of new forms of tribalism, superstition, and conformism, all fueled by technology which has ‘activated’ deep evolutionary predispositions within us making the citizens of democracies predisposed to engaging in certain forms of decision-making which are anti-thetical to utility based calculations.
To my mind grappling with this topic is at the core of coming to grips with the causative drivers of our era of Enduring disorder. We simply must understand why the internet, social media, and the rise of economic and social dislocations has made so many democratic populaces less willing to coordinate among different social groups and more attracted to sectarian and majoritarian nationalism and a whole range of superstitious and magical thinking about the problems we are all facing.
Oliver Scott Curry’s research has shown that cooperation is judged to be morally good everywhere and forms the bedrock of a universal moral compass… and the seven principles of universal morality are ‘help your kin, be loyal to your group, reciprocate favours, be courageous, defer to superiors, share things fairly, and respect other people’s property. Does this make humanity quite well suited to form large scale trusting organizations for collective tasks? Can’t these pre-dispositions be harnessed to help foster international collaboration? Isn’t collaboration and compromise for mutual benefit the core human moral and societal value that is needed to get us out of the age of Enduring Disorder and into an age of Order?
In this week’s Disorder episode, I am joined for the first of a two part series with Harvey Whitehouse, Director of the Centre for the Study of Social Cohesion at Oxford University and author of Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World. We explore: why cultivating a deeper understanding of evolutionary biology helps us explain the exact sociological appeal of strongmen like Putin and Trump; whether the decline in global religiosity has made societies less governable; and why the concept of identity fusion can shed light on how humans see the very essence of their being as part of a group and are willing to act collectively and selflessly to achieve what are perceived as shared interests.
In a way this episode ties in with previous discussions with Jamie Metzl and Brian Klaas about how the internet manipulates our evolutionary predispositions for in-group solidarity and strongmen in times of crisis to push support for neo-populists, but the discussion with Whitehouse injects the anthropological and biological data of how this affect manifests itself. As such I see it (and next week’s follow up) as a cornerstone episode, truly unpacking the appeal of neo-populists and why they are selected by democratic electorates even when they offer no workable policy solutions to address the challenges of inflation, migration, or whatever other genuine problems that they claim they will solve. The neo-populists do more than cater to the desire for strongmen in times of crises and uncertainty they appeal to a need for identity fusion. Harvey explains how we need to cater to these very legitimate urges on the centre-left or real concessus solutions will simply lack the emotional appeal that plays off of ‘wild religion’ that fake neo-populists ones offer in spades.
Here are some of the amazing topics we get into during the episode:
From Nordic Gnomes to micronesian ancestors that can pass through walls, beliefs in specific kinds of the supernatural is not only widespread it fulfills an evolutionary purpose, fosters social cohesion, and has become deeply rooted in our physical and cultural DNA.
Quoting from Harvey’s Inheritance: ‘Eventually our beliefs in the super natural would compel us to submit to rulers, to pay them their dues, and fight their wars.’ Could you explain this process in broad brush strokes and possibly given an example of how the decline in religiosity has made societies less governable?
Study of rituals show that they are remembered more when they evoke more fear, are more symbolically laden, and galvanized a certain emotional response… democratic countries have used such rituals at graduation ceremonies from police and military academies and sports teams use hazing rituals… but what can we do to make group bonding civic rituals that play on our inherited biology to make citizens of democracies feel fused to people of different backgrounds that they share the same civic space with?
Harvey truly explains why over the last two decades the seemingly ‘connecting’ phenomena of globalization and the internet have not made human communities more united. Seemingly paradoxically, aided by new technologies and interconnections, new forms of tribalism, superstition, in-group conformism, and out-group hatred have spread. Are these patterns of in-group solidarity and out-group distrust just the way humans are biologically wired to think?
Listen here.
And as we order the disorder together we talk about the kind of barrier crossing leaders who can draw on insights from our evolutionary biology to actually unite rather than divide people
Deep Background
Get Harvey’s book, Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529152227
For more on Harvey and his amazing breadth of research:
https://www.harveywhitehouse.com/
Listen back to Claire York in ‘Ep39. What Role, if any, is there for Empathy in Ordering the Disorder?’ https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/ddabc397bd974b61f558504f5fff388f
And now some Libya, Russia, and the chaotic drive to November:
Libya-Analysis has launched its own substack!
If you have any interest in how the Enduring Disorder plays out in its paradigmatic heartland you should subscribe here.
Much is a foot in Libya as for the first time since the fall of Qadhafi the Central Bank Governor (Sadiq al-Kabir aka the 60 Billion Dollar man, the Grandmaster of Letters of Credit, and the Imperial Tzar of Forex) is on the verge of being forced out of his position by his erstwhile allies in Western Libya and his former enemies in Eastern Libya who are now his current supporters have responded by launched a blanket oil blockade.
I was interviewed by Foreign Policy magazine explaining some general audience dynamics of the crisis which you can read here.
The upshot is there is an blanket oil blockade imposed by Russia’s Libyan ally Haftar. This stoppage hurts Biden. It will marginally increase inflationary pressures and prices at the pump over the next months. The Russians will also do various actions with Iran/Hizbollah to try to achieve the same. They may fail because the Chinese demand is so slow that energy markets have oversupply in situation of normal production. But Putin/MBZ will try their damndest to get Trump and harm Biden/Harris. That is my meta-analysis. I could be wrong. could be conspiratorial... but i've been around the block enough and I’ve met enough Russian officials in my time and this is how they think.
I believe the Russia angle is important for another reason too. Extended oil stoppages seem to only happen when they benefit both Vladimir Putin and MBZ. If we investigate dynamics in 2019-2020 and then March to June 2022. The oil stoppages that 'seem' to have emerged out of Libyan conflicts emerge as part of Russian manipulation of the energy markets to their advantage either to hurt European consumers, to increase Russian earnings or in this case to help Trump. I expect now that the Russians will try to keep the Libyan oil will stay off till November. Whether they will succeed or not has to do with various Libyan actors and the ability to assemble a coalition of coherent Western diplomacy… I can’t assess how that will play out but we now know for sure that Russia will be using an oil and MENA chaos weapon against Harris and Biden until November. It is simply Enduring Disorder 101.
Now for those who want to understand the details more… pls follow the below from the Libya-Analysis Substack.
The crisis over the CBL leadership escalates as PC-appointed board takes the HQ
This week we look at the developments in the CBL crisis as Kabir is evicted, as well as the security agreement in Tripoli that facilitated this and the eastern oil blockade in protest at his removal
Incident: Following the Presidential Council’s (PC) decision on 20 August that it was appointing Muhammed al-Shukri as Central Bank of Libya (CBL) governor alongside a technocratic board, the political and institutional battle for control of the CBL has intensified.
On 23 August, Shukri issued a statement in which he said that he will only assume the position if there is consensus between the Presidential Council (PC), the House of Representatives (HoR) and the High State Council (HSC) over his appointment. Shukri emphasised that he will not assume the role amidst ongoing political disputes and refuses to be part of any chaos that could lead to conflict or loss of life.
The lay of the land then shifted following an agreement with the Ministry of Interior (MoI) on 23 August whereby Rada (which secures the CBL HQ) essentially agreed not to fight to protect Governor al-Sadiq al-Kabir, forcing Kabir to flee and allowing the PC-led committee to enter the CBL.
On 25 August, in the morning, the PC handover committee arrived at the CBL HQ to find the employees had left, key operations had been shut down, and the doors were closed. However, they forced entry (though it is important to note there were no clashes) and later the same day, the new PC-appointed board of directors – notably not including Shukri but led by PC-appointed Deputy Governor Abdul Fattah Ghafar – were in the building.
In response, later the same day Kabir submitted a report to the Attorney General’s Office over the storming of the CBL HQ, noting the decision to replace the CBL leadership was issued by an unauthorised party. The HoR also issued a statement condemning and denouncing ‘in the strongest terms’ the attempts to ‘forcefully storm’ the CBL HQ in Tripoli by parties that lack legitimacy, calling on the Attorney General to investigate the incident and hold those involved responsible. Likewise, the HSC under Khalid al-Mishri issued a statement reiterated its rejection of the PC’s ‘encroachment’ and urged local and international bodies to treat the PC as an ‘illegitimate and usurping’ power.
In the wake of the PC-appointed CBL board issuing their first statement, Kabir, HoR Speaker Aqeela Saleh and PC head Muhammed al-Menfi doubled down on their positions.
On 26 August, the PC-appointed CBL Board of Directors issued their first statement via the official CBL Facebook page, confirming ‘that the process of taking over the management of the bank has been fully completed’ and the board has ‘committed all necessary measures to ensure a smooth transition, bypassing any attempts to disrupt by the previous administration.’
On 27 August, Menfi issued a statement reiterating its position that it sees its decision to replace Kabir with a temporary board as legitimate and urging the HoR and HSC to agree on a new governor and board of directors. Menfi said the PC’s priority ‘is the independence of the central bank, the application of the principles of governance and collective leadership, and the reduction of the inflation that has burdened citizens.’ He said the PC had managed to take security and economic measures that maintained the stability of the capital and the CBL’, adding that ‘the time of an individual's control over the financial institution and what led to collective punishment has come to an end.’
On 27 August, Kabir issued an urgent statement (claiming to be issued from Tripoli) saying that the CBL HQ is witnessing another raid with the aim of ‘implementing the PC’s illegal decision’. He warned the move exposes the CBL, its assets, accounts, systems external relations and reputation to danger, adding it would prevent the CBL from paying the salaries for August as well as disrupting letters of credit and personal transfers.
On 27 August, Saleh issued a statement reiterating that it views the PC decision as illegitimate, instructing Kabir and his deputy Marei al-Barassi to continue their duties and adding a new board of directors would be ratified in the coming days. He said the HoR holds the PC ‘fully responsible for the state of confusion in the banking sector internally and externally, and for its violation of security and stability, which led to the extortion, kidnapping and threats of Central Bank employees’ and called for criminal proceedings to be initiated by the Attorney General. He also warned the oil blockade would continue until Kabir was reinstated.
On 27 August, the PC-appointed Deputy Governor of the CBL, Abdul Fattah Ghafar, gave a press conference in which he asked the outgoing leadership of the CBL for the codes to access the financial systems.
The UN and other internationals are attempting to mediate the situation.
Late on 26 August, UNSMIL issued a statement expressing ‘deep concern over the deteriorating situation in Libya resulting from unilateral decisions. The Mission believes that continuing with unilateral actions will come at a high cost for the Libyan people to resolve the protracted crisis, and risks precipitating the country's financial and economic collapse.’ It called for an emergency meeting for all parties involved in the CBL crisis to find a consensus, citing UNSC Resolution 2702 (2023) and stressing the principles of consensus, protecting the CBL’s independence, and ensuring the continuity of public services. UNSMIL also called for the suspension of all unilateral decisions related to the CBL, the immediate lifting of force majeure over the oil fields, the cessation of any escalation, and ensuring the safety of Central Bank staff and protecting them from threats and arbitrary arrest. It concluded that this process will also aim to agree a unified government and put Libya ack on the path to elections.
Comment: The conflict over the CBL and Kabir’s position as governor has been brewing for months, since Kabir cut off PM Abdul Hameed Dabaiba’s access to development funds as well as some operational funds over concerns about the levels of corruption and overspend that was occurring – primarily orchestrated by PM Dabaiba’s nephew Ibrahim Dabaiba. These hostilities led Saleh to improve relations with East, notably with Aqeela Saleh and Haftar (despite the former trying to remove Kabir for years previously).
Dabaiba’s political survival depends on having the financial resources to ‘serve’ his supporters, so regaining access to the CBL funds became a matter of survival. It seems Dabaiba was able to convince Menfi and his close advisors that Kabir was compromised by his new alliance with the eastern actors, and that a legislative means to replace him was required. Against this backdrop, the PC decided on 18 August to implement issue HoR Resolution No. 3 of 2018 appointing Shukri as the governor. However, the HoR had pre-empted this by suspending that decision days before and voting to end the term of the Government of National Unity (GNU) and PC. Since then, there have been a flurry of competing statements and moves by supporters on both sides.
Although the UN, US and others have not explicitly stated that they continue to support Kabir, they have condemned in strong terms the attempts to unilaterally remove him and take control of the CBL by force. For most internationals, despite his many flaws, Kabir is seen as a stable, competent economic actor whose removal could precipitate complete economic collapse.
Significance: While the situation around the CBL remains highly volatile and unpredictable, it is clear that this crisis has already created significant economic and political instability, with a negative impact on the Libyan economy, Libya’s international standing and access to financial systems, and importantly the lives of normal Libyans. As it stands, the incoming board of directors has control over the physical CBL building in central Tripoli, but they do not currently have access to the financial systems. Meanwhile, Kabir and his team retain access to the all important SWIFT codes, but are no longer at the CBL or even in the country. Ghafar’s public request for the codes and Kabir’s warning that this situation will result in salaries and letters of credit not being paid indicate that Kabir cannot carry out these operations in exile, while the new board will not be able to do so without the codes and access which Kabir and his team hold. As it stands, any number of scenarios could play out in the coming days, with the potential for destabilising actions and the collapse of the Libyan economic system.
As such, if efforts to mediate a solution fail, or if it takes some time, Libya’s financial systems are likely to ground to a halt internally, while the uncertainty and lack of clarity of who is legally running the CBL means that Libya is likely to be frozen out of international systems and markets, which will be devastating for the economy more widely. On a more local level, Libyans will likely find it hard to live their day to day lives in these conditions, meaning anger will rise and along with it the pressure for actors to do something about it. Even if the new board gains full access to the CBL and Kabir is unable to return, the GNU and the PC are likely to face considerable political (and legal) difficulties, especially given the clear international stance against their moves. They may also face basic administrative and financial challenges.
The UNSMIL statement denouncing unilateral actions and calling for an emergency meeting is notable for the strength of its language and its clear denunciation of the PC/GNU attempts to forcibly take control of the CBL. This clearly highlights the high levels of concern about the negative fallout of prolonged instability around the CBL leadership, both economically and more widely. Sustained efforts will no doubt being made to bring the actors together to work out a solution.
Although no scenario can be ruled out given the high levels of volatility, it seems unlikely that Kabir would be able to return as the governor, or if he did, it would be with a ‘unified’ board of directors and with additional curbs on his powers. A more likely outcome would be to bring in Shukri as governor leading a unified board – meaning key actors will get to put a certain number of their people on the board. It is also likely that the UN will attempt to use this crisis to push forward efforts to facilitate a new unified government to replace the GNU and possibly the PC – especially in light of the destabilising efforts to take over the CBL. However, bringing Libya’s status quo actors together and hammering out a solution remains a difficult task to achieve. Dabaiba in particular will be reluctant to do so if he thinks it will hasten the end of his government. The partial oil blockade, and threats of a complete shutdown by the East, will further complicate this.