Canada: 2025’s stealth mega orderers?

And for Paid subscribers a sneak peak at Alex Hall Hall and Jason's Christmas wishes for more global order and Marci on the Anglo-Canadian connection

Firstly, before we get into Canada matters, Alex has written this great overview article about the situation in Georgia from her recent trip

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/12/17/the-west-will-regret-abandoning-the-georgian-people-to-the-clutches-of-russia/

And Arthur Snell has interviewed one of the leading experts on HTS and the Syrian anti-Assad jihadi landscapes. Brace yourselves for this one it is content packed and filled with the twists and turns of a Game of Thrones season (I am guessing as I’ve never watched a single minute of game of thrones but I do watch a lot of Jihadi propaganda videos and follow how they turn on their erstwhile allies quite ruthlessly)

And on developments in Northern Syria: https://x.com/charles_lister/status/1868687630659166674?s=48

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/middleeast/kurdish-forces-syria-turkey-isis-america.html

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Now without further ado to the topic you’ve all been waiting for with baited Breath:

OH CANADA!
Our home and native land!….
The True North strong and free!….
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.

From its important but underrecognized role in the World Wars of the 20th century to its key advocacy for the UN system, humanitarian aid, peacekeeping, and international treaties, Canada has been a major player in the global ordering sweepstakes.

So what does Canada do when the world’s largest trading relationship (Canada’s with the United States) no longer necessarily connects it to a trustworthy nation? Can Canada step up and present itself as an independent leader of the free world and a ‘coordinator-in-chief’ for other Ordering nations? Will hosting the G7 give Canada some stealth mega ordering mojo?

To discuss that and more, Jason is joined by Marci Surkes, Surkes served as Executive Director of Policy and Cabinet Affairs in the office of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

(Listen on Apple podcasts here. Or on Spotify here)

This turned out to be a very timely conversation as Canadian PM Justin Trudeau visited President-Elect Trump in Mar-a-Lago in late November and noted that Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs would decimate the Canadian economy. In response Trump suggested that Canada was ‘ripping off America’ to the tune of a 100 billion USD a year and that if Canada wanted tariff free trade it could become the 51st state. This sparked many viral memes.

Amidst this bizarre and yet terrifying backdrop, Jason and Marci explore the upcoming 2025 Canadian election, which may actually play out as a referendum on Trudeau’s handling of the Trump presidency. They also discuss leadership challenges to Trudeau within the Liberal Party and the fraught relationship between Canada and India and the pivotal role Canada could play in Global Ordering as it takes on the presidency of the G7 in 2025.

Plus: could there be a budding bromance between Starmer and Trudeau? And as Marci and Jason Order the Disorder, they explore the need for more gender equality across politics and why medium powers like Canada can play a pivotal role on issues like security guarantees and NATO.

(Listen on Apple podcasts here. Or on Spotify here)

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DEEPER BACKGROUND ON CANADIAN POLITICS AND THE TRADE ROW WITH TRUMP

Listen to an explainer on why Canadian politics has ground to a halt:

Listen to Marci’s appearance on a panel discussing what Trump means for Canada:

The Panel: What Trump means for Canada

Listen to our Ben Ansell episode about other elections: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/50e9a35e0737bb9d0ddf29460a199c37

Read profile of Melanie Joly (Canada’s Foreign Minister): https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/world/canada/melanie-joly-foreign-affairs-profile.html

Key Quotes From Marci

1: We don't know at this moment in time who will be the sitting prime minister at the moment of convening the G7 nations, just as we don't know at this moment who will be representing some of the other key allies. It could very well be that there will be new faces at the table from France. There certainly will be a new face from the United Kingdom. We don't know who will be welcomed from Germany at this moment. We know who will be representing the United States if he chooses to participate in that meeting of G7 nations. But just to say, in a G7 year especially, where Canada has the opportunity to set the tone amongst ordered nations, traditional allies, this is a moment for Canada to actually step out of the shadow and say, this organization matters and this is why.

2: Trudeau does not take for granted how he has to operate with Trump and he will play the game. They are playing the game and the best advice is to settle into this campaign rhythm and ensure that every single day there are touch points, there is contact and yes it's going to be transactional. It is what is going to be necessary to ensure that Canada does not Get brushed aside. And it looks different, but this is Canada leading, leaning into that relationship with Trump, whatever it takes.

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Now a lot has happened since we recorded this episode and I want to feature some amazingly kind and insightful listener feedback on today’s episode that has already come in from mega ordering listener Alana from Ontario thank you so much Alana):

Interesting glance at Canada and the state of play within the current Liberal government and where it is positioned globally. Alas, your ordering work is not done yet, Canada is in a politically dramatic state of flux right now, who knows where the chips will land?

It is important not to understate how much Trudeau is despised within the country. An every growing number of Canadians would like to see him step down as Liberal leader, especially after Monday’s stunning departure of Freeland as Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister; how Trudeau survives such a stinging rebuke of his leadership is to be determined but to say the Liberal party is in the midst of an implosion is an understatement…Freeland’s resignation letter was a mike drop if ever there was one.

Even prior to Monday, Trudeau and the PMO have been feckless and rudderless, refusing to acknowledge the party’s deep unpopularity and the steady Liberal losses in local by-elections, ridings that would ordinarily be safe Liberal seats. Trudeau has consistently had problematic relationships with some Ministers, Freeland being the most recent example. No, Trudeau is offering Canada nothing short of political chaos, a chaos we can hardly afford to be in the midst of given Trump’s impending tariff’s. Many Canadians view him as an ego driven man, clinging to power and walling himself off from advice he does not wish to receive. And his lack of leadership regarding the “Team Canada” approach to the US government trade negotiations with the provinces and territories is concerning but hardly surprising…in addition to having difficult relations with some Ministers, so he does with some Premiers and Territorial leaders.

Adding to the chaos federally:

1. Singh, the leader of the NDP, lacks the conviction to topple the Liberals and force an election;

2. Yves Blanchet of the Bloc Québécois (the federal Quebec separatist party) considers the Liberal government over and further, there is a chance the Bloc could spark a constitutional crisis by resurrecting a referendum on Quebec separation;

3. The Green Party, little more than a political eyeroll, they imploded a few years back and have never recovered;

4. Finally, the MAGA-adjacent CPC, led by Pierre Poilievre, a fundamentalist Christian and career politician who offers Canada little more than Tik Tok friendly slogans and populist angry rhetoric. The laziest of politicians but likely our next PM.

TLDR: A sad situation for the average voter, to be sure.

It is, nonetheless, validating to see some attention paid to Canada; all too often we are overlooked by the international media so I appreciate Disorder presenting a snapshot of Canada in an episode.

BTW, I was very worried about you after Trump’s (terrible) win, you sounded so devastated. I was sending you a virtual hug, a cup of tea and some warm chocolate chip cookies through the ether to soothe you.

Love the pod, keep up the outstanding work!

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And for some extra holiday cheer (what i wish for for Xmas and what Marci thinks about the Anglo-Canadian connection), pls check out the pay for substack… you can apparently check it out for free by following the special offer from substack for the holidays…: