Britain's True Independence (from Neopopulists) Day
And my man crush on the Messiah of non-Messianicness!
I am so so so excited I just just just can’t hide it. (You can hear a type of giddiness in my voice on my emergency cast that I haven’t felt in years. Listen here.)
Due to my various eccentricities, I see the hand of a providential mega orderer at work with the UK going to a general election on July 4th. I don’t understand why my British friends poopoo my man crush on Starmer, because I see Sir Keir as truly messianic in his non-messianic-ness and as a better, younger, more competent , more goofy, and even more technocratic version of Biden.
(even with his eyes closed caught grimacing on Sky News, I just find the man’s non-charisma so charismatic…and I find his lack of personality so dynamically exciting)
So excited was I, I made an emergency cast to grapple with the big issues that this election raises for Global Ordering. Listen here.
To get a native-born insider’s view on the election, I was joined by my Scottish doppelganger (Jane Kinninmont) to discuss what the election could mean for UK foreign policy, post-July 4th Britain’s ability to be an orderer on the global stage, and also what this election timing means for developments North of Hadrian’s wall.
We discussed: alternate theories as to why this election timing came about, where the electoral battlelines are being drawn (solidly in the centre ground – especially on foreign policy), if the electoral competition is not focused on wildly different worldviews but on competence, and the potentially disordering role of anti-system players like Corbyn, Galloway, Farage, and Richard Tice.
The show ends with my putting forward my mystical grand unified theory of how Irish, Italian, Israeli, and British elections affect US elections. You wouldn’t want to miss it. Dare I say I think it is the most podcasty viby episode we’ve recorded yet… Listen here. (IF YOU WANT TO SKIP DIRECTLY TO MY MYSTICAL GRAND UNIFIED THEORY THAT STARTS AT 39:20
For those who prefer to read rather than listening here are our top takeaways—
1. UK election why this timing:
a) Sunak afraid of 1922 committee and Sir Graham
b) his ability to choose other tory candidates
c) preventing the further growth of REform and keeping Farage on the Bench
2. Where the battle lines are being drawn: solidly in the centre ground – especially on foreign policy. In a huge contrast with the US, the parties are sketching out foreign policy positions that are very close together, especially on defence and security and on Ukraine, as they see votes to be won in the centre ground.
The main areas where they’re differentiating themselves are in future relations with the EU, emphasis on international law, and the Rwanda asylum seeker policy which is now almost certainly dead.
Lammy speech at Chatham House on Thursday talked of a new era of geopolitical competition, starting with US and China, and made multipolar by regional powers: he said we are not so much in a new world order as a new, polarised disorder. (Hey – someone should do a podcast on that… ooooh we already are)
This is actually very similar to the picture of the world that Lord Cameron sees and the thinking that goes deep in the FCDO and MOD on a new era of state threats and a need to partner with middle powers.
The competition is not focused on wildly different worldviews but on competence. “Starmer has no plan – our plan is working” versus “Change is needed”. Again Lammy talked about “foreign policy for hardworking families” which speaks to traditional values and social conservatives.
3. The way in which UK elections affect US elections.
a) My grand unified theory of how Irish, Italian, Israeli, and British elections effect US elections and are affected by them
b) what are the push and pull factors (mega donors, diasporic push and pull, road testing messaging, building momentum)
c) why Sunak's calling the election when he did is the best thing that has happened to Biden in over a year ( I SWEAR SUNAK JUST HELPED BIDEN BY 1-2% IN MICHIGAN/IOWA/OHIO/MINNESOTA) Listen here. (IF YOU WANT TO SKIP DIRECTLY TO MY MYSTICAL GRAND UNIFIED THEORY THAT STARTS AT 39:20
4. How both UK parties are nervously hedging their bets re the US
Labour saying things on defence and security spending that appeal to Republicans and a generally more isolationist US – see Elbridge Colby praising David Lammy
Big QUESTION– what if Trump wants to push a Ukraine-Russia settlement that is essentially imposed on Ukraine – what does the UK do? This is one reason why NATO is planning for a longer term multi-year assistance package for Ukraine to be locked in at the Washington Summit – which Keir Starmer could be signing off on in his fifth day in the job – the summit starts 9th July.
For Deep background on how and why we got to this election and why I see the hand of Providence in the economics and timing
For a quick overview of the mechanics of how Sunak’s team called the General Election: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9rr73w103vo
For Arthur Snell’s recent substack: ‘Is this why he called it now?, An excellent new podcast gave me thought of a possible reason for Sunak's timing:
Inflation in UK now lower than in EU or US and yet GBP to USD still strong:
How a potential disordering disaster has been averted: BEN ANSELL, in the FT on ‘Parallel US and UK elections could bring dangers’: https://www.ft.com/content/176d4b78-1e9a-45c9-8c3c-a74e758ec22f
David Lammy on Labour’s Foreign Policy vision: https://www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/members-event/what-labours-foreign-policy
Labour saying things on defence and security spending that appeal to US Republicans and a generally more isolationist US – see Elbridge Colby praising David Lammy: https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-ally-hits-out-at-david-cameron-for-lecturing-us/