As Russia advances, is Kharkiv going to be turned into Mariupol?
And What’s next for Georgia and its 'foreign agent’ law?
This substack is 1. a pre-teaser for an episode that I recorded today due to late breaking developments in Ukraine, but will only be dropping in our feed on Tuesday May 21 and 2. An update on the protests in Georgia.
I wanted to use the substack to alert you all to these developments in Ukraine in advance as the situation is quite dynamic… and I’ll be providing a lot of background links for those who want to follow more about what is going on right now in Ukraine.
1. Russia is Advancing in Ukraine’s Northeast, Is Kharkiv at risk of being turned into Mariupol? Zelensky Survives Assassination attempt, Western Aid yet to tip the battle, Ukraine on the backfoot
The sun is shining, the flowers are in bloom, what time does that make it? Russo-Ukrainian Summer Offensive Time!
Over the last two weeks, Russia has been gaining territory in Ukraine’s northeast, while the shelling of Kharkiv has progressively increased. This does not come as a surprise. The Ukrainians have been on the back foot militarily since their 2023 Summer offensive stalled.
What is the strategic logic of Russia’s recent advance? Jason is joined by acclaimed military historian Saul David. He co-hosts our sister podcast within the Goalhanger network, Battleground.
Listen to Goalhanger’s excellent Battleground Pod here: https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/battleground
Get Saul’s Sunday Times bestselling book, Sky Warriors: British Airborne Forces in the Second World War, here:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sky-Warriors-British-Airborne-Forces/dp/0008522162
In the Tuesday May 21 upcoming episode of Disorder, Saul and Jason debate the strategic logic behind Russia’s recent moves – proposing three alternative theses for Russia’s actions: 1) Putin is trying to create a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine; 2) the current offensive is a faint to draw Ukrainian troops to the north prior to a Russian attack in Donbass; 3) Russia is trying to turn Kharkiv into Mariupol, Grozny, or Aleppo, that is to say to aerially decimate the city and inflict tremendous humanitarian suffering on its populace without any hope of actually conquering it.
After sketching a broad-brush stroke picture of the tactical and strategic situation on the ground, Saul and Jason discuss how new shipments of Western armaments will affect the current fighting; recent Russian attempts to assassinate President Zelensky; if the murder of Navalny has changed battlefield dynamics at all; the role of China and the ongoing Gaza war upon the fighting in Ukraine; and what are the relevant historical parallels to the current fighting and what lessons they hold for orderers.
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For More Background reading on the fast and furious developments in Ukraine:
Is the Russian offensive a faint? Read more here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/16/russias-victory-day-campaign-just-ran-into-a-wall-of-ukrainian-mechanized-troops/
More on Tactics and Armaments affecting development in Kharkiv: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/15/russia-kharkiv-offensive-ukraine-vovchansk-weapons-biden/
For more on Blinken’s visit to Kyiv: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/14/ukraine-zelenskiy-calls-for-more-air-defences-as-blinken-arrives-in-kyiv
And on the Russian plot to assassinate Zelensky: https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-assassination-plot-foiled-1897852
Find out more on Ukraine's will to survive and defend Kharkiv from Jade McGlynn:
Her recent Pod with Arthur Snell:
And her Dispatch from Kharkiv commemorating the 2 year anniversary of the war: https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/despatch-from-kharkiv/
Finally, Jason and Bill Browder’s ideas on the need for a seizure of Frozen Russian asset via Navalny acts: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/what-makes-a-martyr-alexei-navalny-shines-a-light-on-vladimir-putin-s-evil-tyranny/ar-BB1ja4If
Part II What’s next for Georgia and its 'foreign agent’ law? Listen to our episode: Here.
Earlier this week, Georgia passed its controversial ‘foreign agent’ law.
Under the bill, NGOs and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors would have to register as organisations "bearing the interests of a foreign power”. The law has been met with mass protests across the country.
So what does the passing of this bill mean for Georgia’s hope to become an EU and NATO member? What could it mean for the countries elections later this year? And how should the West respond?
To find out, Alex Hall Hall (who served as Ambassador to Georgia), speaks to Ia Meurmishvili.
An international journalist based in Washington, DC. She a former Managing Editor at Voice of America's Georgian Service, where she hosted the weekly TV show, "View from Washington." She is a frequent commentator and moderator in international discussions about U.S. foreign and national security policy, particularly with respect to the Caucasus and Eurasia region.
Listen Here.
Read Alex’s article How the Georgian ‘Foreign Agents Bill’ May Cost it Everything its People Have Ever Dreamed Of – And Benefit No One But Russia: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/02/how-the-georgian-foreign-agents-bill-may-cost-it-everything-its-people-have-ever-dreamed-of-and-benefit-no-one-but-russia/
Read more background on Georgia approves controversial 'foreign agent' law, sparking more protests here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69007465