Is the West winning the Economic War against Russia?

Stephanie Baker author of 'PUNISHING PUTIN: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia' and a plug for Peter Geoghegan and the 'Democracy for Sale' Substack

Oct 17, 2024

Sometimes we need a break from Backgammon with some serious ‘the-world-at-war’ content:

Jason’s take—So long as money flows anything goes

We all still have a secret fascination with how the other half (the mega disorders) actually live… especially if that other half are Russian billionaires who have superyachts impounded under sanctions in San Diego while they move billions of assets to Dubai. Today, we are returning to the issue of western dysfunction and coordination failures when it comes to combatting kleptocracy and to implementing sanctions. Obviously, the human interest stories like how a famous Russian oligarch defies US sanctions to charter a private jet to fly his porn star girlfriend from Moscow to California to give birth to American citizen children are titillating but I am wondering do such stories mask much more… a permissive world order where truly anything goes, so long as you can get away with it, and that the forces of order frequently lack the manpower and coordination capacity to implement the laws and regulations they pass?

To my mind as an innate orderer, this issue of sanctions should be truly front and centre in terms of how we think about global conflict. Today’s conflicts are more economic and technological than about pure force anyway and the top table adversaries of global order (Iran and Russia) use the international financial system and cash flows from their enemies the ordering states to finance their wars of aggression. Essentially, Western and East Asian energy consumers have underwritten the Russian and Iranian proxy wars of aggression in Ukraine and Israel/Gaza… and without cash and advanced technological components from democratic Western and east Asian countries neither Iran or Russia would be able to have the power in the world to wreck the havoc that they do.

Fortunately, As we speak the financial sanctions against these regimes are more comprehensive than any previous sanctions regimes in human history… but are they effective… do Western and international community sanctions actually hit disordering regimes where it hurts, curb their chances of winning their wars of aggression and affect their decisions matrixes to avoid future aggressions?

Can Sanctions help us Order the Disorder?

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the West initiated the most comprehensive economic war in human history. This was possible because of the existence of new tools that previous generations simply couldn’t have dreamt of. The US, EU, and UK announced a range of well-coordinated sanctions against Russia which included export restrictions, freezing assets, excluding the Russian Central Bank from SWIFT, and banning flights. It was an example of transcending the Enduring Disorder with the main Western powers working together seamlessly.

But seen in hindsight were these effective? Did they degrade Russia’s fighting capacity? Does kicking a state out of the globalized economy actually hit Disordering states, like Putin’s Russia or Iran, where it hurts? Do they help avoid future aggression? Or do they facilitate the rise of a ‘Disorderer’s Club’ where sanctioned autocracies merely trade with each other and form common cause against the West?

In this ‘investigative’ episode of Disorder, Jason Pack is joined by Bloomberg journalist, Stephanie Baker, author of ‘Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia.’ The pair explore different theories of whether economic integration prevents wars, the effectiveness of sanctions, the fear of blowback, the role of oligarchs in Putin's regime, and the impact of the novel $60 a barrel ‘oil price cap’ on Russia's economy. Plus: as they Order the Disorder, they look at whether methods like the oil price cap could be used to deter Iran, the need for a coordinated international response (which includes players like the UAE), and how targeting Putin’s access to high-end semi-conductors could help undermine his authoritarian power.

(Listen here)

More on Stephanie’s work, Russia, and Sanctions

Get Stephanie’s book, Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Punishing-Putin/Stephanie-Baker/9781668050583

Readna review of Punishing Putin: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/13/punishing-putin-review-us-economic-sanctions-russia-war-ukraine/

Read more from Stephanie on how Seizing a Russian Superyacht is much more complicated than you think: https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/stories-archive/russian-oligarch-s-seized-yachts-are-costing-tax-payers-millions

And for some amusement amidst all the seriousness, Read ‘Giuliani Has Curious Links to a Jewish Village in Ukraine’ by Stephanie https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/stories-archive/guiliani-link-to-jewish-village-ukraine

Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus Ep67. ‘Dictators’ Disordering Quest for Internal Security’: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e

Listen to our episode with Tom Burgis which sheds light on why authoritarian states outsource their economic functions and corruption: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e003625c25e8ce63dda398369bfea54b

For more on Stephanie visit:

https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/

Speaking of Corruption… let me tell you about DEMOCRACY FOR SALE

I wanted to tell you about an exciting investigative project called Democracy for Sale. It's just two journalists - Peter Geoghegan and Lucas Amin - focused on dirty money and corruption. They've published some really important stories and have many more to come. We had Peter on Disorder back on Episode 7, which was one of my favourites.

Here at Disorder, we're big fans of the Democracy for Sale newsletter!

or check out his book":

Lastly, Remember to get the special substack-only second episode on Backgammon and Politics with former World Champion of Backgammon Sander Lylloff which drops next wednesday October 23rd you need to have subscribed to the substack..